Analysts have raised their 2026 Brent crude price forecast to an average of $89.05/bbl, up from $85.08/bbl in August, as expectations fade for a rapid return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The September Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts also lifted the average West Texas Intermediate forecast to $83.90/bbl for the year, from $80.20/bbl in the previous month's poll.

The spread of individual Brent forecasts remains wide — from $77.27/bbl to $97.60/bbl — reflecting continued uncertainty among economists over how durable the disruption to tanker traffic through the chokepoint will prove.

The numbers that moved

The month-on-month revision is the operative figure: a $3.97/bbl increase in the consensus Brent average and a $3.70/bbl increase for WTI. Forecasts at that level, if realized, would mark a meaningful shift from the trading ranges that preceded the disruption, and refiners running Middle East-linked crude slates will be watching what that implies for landed feedstock costs at Asian and European complexes dependent on Gulf cargoes.

Why the chokepoint matters

Roughly a fifth of globally traded crude and refined products transits the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor connecting Persian Gulf producers — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Qatar among them — to export markets. Any sustained impairment of transits there affects not only crude freight and insurance costs but also product flows from Gulf export refineries.

The poll's respondents base their revisions on the assumption that normalization of shipping will take longer than previously expected. That is the judgment of the surveyed economists and analysts, not a confirmed operational timeline — no port authority, producer or shipping body has published a fixed date for restoration of normal transits.

The spread tells the story

The $20.33/bbl gap between the lowest and highest Brent forecasts in the survey — $77.27/bbl versus $97.60/bbl — signals how much divergence remains among professional forecasters. Analysts describe the exercise as a guessing game over how sustainable the disruption will be, with outcomes hinging on factors outside standard supply-demand modeling: shipping-insurance decisions, convoy arrangements, and the response of producers with spare capacity around the Gulf.

For comparison, a month ago the same panel put Brent at $85.08/bbl. The direction of travel across two consecutive polls is upward, but the width of the range indicates the panel itself assigns substantial probability to outcomes well below the new mean.

What it means for the desk

These are analyst forecasts, not market prices, and they should be treated as attributed analysis rather than settled fact. The Reuters poll aggregates individual house forecasts, each with its own assumptions about freight rates, risk premia, OPEC+ supply policy and demand growth. Traders and refinery planners will price their own scenarios off physical differentials, forward freight agreements and the Brent-Dubai spread rather than off consensus polls.

That said, consensus shifts of this size matter as inputs to budget planning for upstream operators weighing drilling programs and for downstream operators modeling crack-adjusted margins on 2026 crude slates. A Brent path in the high-$80s supports economics for US shale operators considering rig additions in the Permian and other basins, while a WTI average near $84/bbl keeps tight-oil breakevens comfortably cleared across most active plays.

The watch items

Three variables will determine whether the September consensus proves conservative or overheated. First, the actual pace of shipping normalization through Hormuz — watch insurer war-risk premia and daily transit counts as the leading indicators. Second, the next Reuters monthly poll, which will show whether the August-to-September revision continues or reverses. Third, any OPEC+ response on supply policy, which could offset or amplify the disruption's price effect depending on how the group calibrates quotas against impaired Gulf export capacity.

Until transits normalize, the disruption premium stays in the price, and forecast dispersion stays wide.