Brent crude traded above $105/bbl on Oct. 8 after both benchmarks jumped roughly 5% in early Thursday trading, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and hurricane-driven shut-ins in the US Gulf of Mexico layered fresh supply risk on a market already drawing inventories.

What changed in the Strait of Hormuz?

Security conditions along the Persian Gulf corridor have deteriorated, with reported attacks near Qatar, Oman, and the strait itself. The Financial Times reported that Hormuz oil flows had recovered to nearly 90% of prewar levels in late September before reversing. Transit volumes subsequently fell to about 11 million b/d, with flows estimated at roughly 4 million b/d on Tuesday, Oct. 6.

The pullback threatens to unwind recent gains in regional crude exports and extend uncertainty over Middle Eastern loadings. The Pentagon ordered preparations for potential large-scale military operations against Iran, Axios reported, though President Donald Trump said Thursday that "the US would not resume military strikes against Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections" as diplomatic channels remained active.

How much Gulf production is offline?

Offshore operators in the US Gulf of Mexico shut in output and evacuated personnel as Hurricane Isaias approached the northern Gulf Coast. According to the US Marine Minerals Administration, an estimated 511,619 b/d of oil production — equal to 25.1% of regional output — had been curtailed as of Oct. 7. Natural gas shut-ins reached 350.25 MMcfd, or 16.4% of regional production.

Shell suspended operations at Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox. Chevron initiated shutdowns at four operated platforms, with five other regional sites still producing. Isaias reached hurricane strength early Thursday and was forecast to approach the coast late Friday or early Saturday, bringing damaging winds, surge, and heavy rain.

Restart timing will hinge on the storm track and any platform damage. Operators typically return undamaged installations to service once weather clears and safety checks are complete.

What do inventories show?

The US Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday, Oct. 7, that commercial crude inventories fell 3.2 million bbl to 424.1 million bbl in the week ended Oct. 2. Distillate stocks edged down 42,000 bbl to 105.1 million bbl — about 12% below the five-year seasonal average and a marker of continued refined-product tightness.

What is the IEA doing?

The International Energy Agency agreed Wednesday to accelerate deliveries under its existing emergency stock-release program, with particular focus on diesel availability. Roughly 325 million bbl have already been released since the action began in March, leaving about 100 million bbl of previously pledged barrels still on the table. The move speeds previously committed volumes rather than expanding the total pledge, a limited near-term buffer against renewed supply shocks.

What to watch

The next signal will come from Hurricane Isaias's track and the restart schedule at Shell's Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox hubs, which together account for a large share of the curtailed barrels. On the diplomatic side, traders will track any new attacks on Gulf shipping and whether the US-Iran track produces a de-escalation before the Nov. 3 vote. EIA's next weekly petroleum status report will test whether the 3.2-million-bbl draw extends.