Ceyhan Pipeline Flows Hit 500,000 BPD, Highest Since Restart

By Priya Raman

SOMO is now moving 500,000 barrels per day through the Kurdistan Region pipeline to Türkiye's Ceyhan port, according to a single source at Iraq's North Oil Company — and no official has confirmed the number. That caveat matters. The figure, relayed Monday to Kurdistan 24's Kirkuk correspondent Soran Kamaran, would set a new benchmark for the line and a roughly 43 percent jump from prior throughput.

The source credited the increase to an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Natural Resources. Takeaway: the line is running harder than at any point since flows through Turkish territory were restored, but Baghdad has yet to put its name on the number.

What is moving through the line?

The reported 500,000 bpd breaks into three streams, none of them officially verified:

• 125,000 bpd of Kirkuk crude — 25 percent of the total
• 175,000–200,000 bpd of Kurdistan Region crude — roughly 35 percent
• About 200,000 bpd of Basra crude — 40 percent

The Basra barrels make the long way round. They travel by tanker truck to collection stations at Sarallu and Khurmala, at the Khurmala field in the Kurdistan Region, and only then enter the northern pipeline system for the run to Ceyhan on the Turkish Mediterranean coast.

Prior throughput sat between 300,000 and 350,000 bpd, the same source said. Iraqi local media, citing three North Oil Company sources, reported on Sunday that volumes crossed the 500,000 bpd threshold that evening — the highest mark since the pipeline's Turkish segment came back online. Baz Karim Barzanji, head of the Erbil-based KAR Group, a shareholder in the Kurdistan Pipeline Company, wrote on Saturday that exports had doubled from 250,000 to 500,000 bpd.

Note what the claims disagree on. One account starts the doubling at 250,000 bpd; the other at 350,000. Either the baseline moved, or someone is rounding in their favor. Takeaway: the destination figure is consistent across sources; the starting point is not.

Why is Baghdad leaning on the northern route?

The Strait of Hormuz has been shut, and that single fact reshaped Iraq's export map. With Gulf tankers unable to sail, Iraq's total exports collapsed by more than 80 percent in March, when only 18.6 million barrels shipped for about $1.96 billion in revenue. Experts told Kurdistan 24 that Baghdad has since leaned on the Kurdistan Region to escape a severe financial squeeze, making the Ceyhan pipeline one of its most important gateways to world markets — that is analysis, not an official statement, and should be read as such.

The diplomatic scaffolding came in two steps. Baghdad and Erbil agreed on March 17 to resume northern flows. Then Iraq and Türkiye signed a one-year deal on August 1 committing to move at least 750,000 bpd to Ceyhan. Actual performance lagged the paper: S&P Global put the pipeline's June average at 230,000 bpd, about half its historic flows. Takeaway: the line spent months well short of contract volumes, and 500,000 bpd only now closes part of that gap.

Where does 500,000 bpd sit in Iraq's total?

Ceyhan is not Iraq's only exit. Fuel oil and some crude move by truck through Syria to the port of Baniyas, and part of the crude still goes by tanker through Hormuz — a route whose reliability the March collapse called into question.

Oil Minister Basim al-Abadi said on October 19 that exports across all routes had risen above 3.4 million bpd since the start of October. If that figure holds, the Ceyhan line's 500,000 bpd represents roughly 15 percent of national exports. Two unconfirmed numbers stacked on each other, worth flagging, but the proportion is the most useful yardstick available.

The long-term fix is the planned Basra-Haditha pipeline, which the Oil Ministry says could take three years to build. Takeaway: trucking Basra crude hundreds of kilometres north is a workaround, not a strategy, and Baghdad knows it.

Can the flows hold?

The next test is durability. The August 1 agreement with Ankara targets at least 750,000 bpd, and the current 500,000 bpd — even if confirmed — leaves a 250,000 bpd shortfall against contract. Nothing in the source material indicates whether the trucked Basra volumes, which supply 40 percent of the line's throughput, can be sustained at this pace, or what the trucking adds to delivered cost.

Watch for three things: official confirmation of the 500,000 bpd figure from SOMO or the oil ministry, throughput data for November, and any progress statement on the Basra-Haditha pipeline. Until SOMO publishes numbers, this remains a strong claim from unnamed sources at a company that operates the fields but does not market the crude.