Physical crude grades in the Middle East should be trading closer to $150/bbl, according to Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, who told CNBC on Friday that oil futures prices have become disconnected from conditions on the ground in the region.

The benchmark contracts, in Sen's assessment, are lagging the risk environment rather than leading it.

"Futures prices are just struggling to price in what the true fundamentals are, in part because everything…" Sen said, arguing that the paper market has so far failed to absorb the full implications of the escalation.

Why does Energy Aspects see crude as underpriced?

Sen's case rests on the gap between the intensity of hostilities in the Middle East and the tone of the futures curve. The market, she said, is "surprisingly complacent" about the scale of the confrontation, in which the Iran-aligned Houthi movement has targeted Saudi energy infrastructure and other facilities.

That complacency shows up in the numbers. Instead of a market discounting sustained attacks on producing and exporting assets — the kind of disruption that historically forced risk premia into dated barrels — futures continue to change hands at levels Energy Aspects considers far below what the physical situation justifies, Sen told CNBC.

Her reference point for fair value is roughly $150/bbl for some physical grades. That figure is her firm's estimate of where specific crudes should clear if the market priced the current fundamentals properly, not a forecast of where futures will settle.

What is driving the disconnect?

According to Sen, the paper market's struggle is partly mechanical. Futures prices, she said, are finding it difficult to price in the true fundamentals, and the difficulty compounds as events on the ground outpace what curve structures were built to handle.

The pattern she describes is familiar to physical traders: benchmarks anchored to storage and financial flows can drift from the realities that set differentials for individual grades. When hostilities strike at exporting infrastructure — as the Houthi campaign against Saudi facilities has done — the effect lands first and hardest on physical barrels, and only later, if at all, on the front of the futures curve.

For refiners, the distinction matters. A $150/bbl-equivalent assessment for some physical grades implies the cost of securing actual cargoes could diverge sharply from what screen prices suggest, squeezing crude slates long before the headline benchmarks move.

How should readers treat the call?

The $150 figure is analysis to attribute, not a market fact. It reflects Energy Aspects' read of fundamentals — one voice in a debate where other forecasters weigh the same events and reach different conclusions about supply risk. Sen made the comments on CNBC on Friday.

The underlying observation, though, is checkable: the Iran-aligned Houthis have targeted Saudi energy and other infrastructure, and Sen contends the futures market has not matched the intensity of those hostilities with proportionate pricing.

The watch item for trading desks and refinery planners is whether the physical market narrows the gap on its own. If attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue or widen, dated differentials will test Energy Aspects' thesis before the futures curve does; if hostilities ease, the complacency Sen criticizes will look like correct pricing.