US oil and natural gas production increased in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve's latest energy survey, even as producers across the region flagged persistent uncertainty over prices as a drag on future activity.

The Dallas Fed's quarterly survey, which polls oil and gas firms operating primarily in the Permian basin, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and other Texas-centered plays, showed output moving higher on the quarter for both crude and natural gas. The survey aggregates responses from executives at exploration and production companies, oilfield services firms and others across the Eleventh District energy sector.

The gain in production came against a backdrop of volatile crude prices, and the survey's accompanying commentary from executives pointed to price uncertainty as the dominant concern for the months ahead. Producers told the Dallas Fed that the difficulty of forecasting oil prices — rather than any single price level — is shaping decisions on drilling, completions and capital allocation.

Survey respondents have repeatedly tied activity levels to price signals in recent quarters, and the latest round of responses continued that pattern. Firms reported that higher output in the quarter reflected work already sanctioned and completed earlier in the year, while forward-looking indicators suggested more caution.

The Dallas Fed survey is one of the most closely watched regional gauges of upstream sentiment in the US oil patch, drawing responses from companies active in the Permian, the country's largest oil-producing basin, as well as South Texas shale gas and liquids plays. Its diffusion indexes for business activity, employment and capital expenditure feed into broader reads on the health of the US energy sector.

For services firms, the picture mirrored that of producers: activity rose alongside production, but executives cited the same pricing fog when asked about expectations for the coming quarters.

Analysts tracking the survey note that production growth in the face of price uncertainty is consistent with the lag between drilling decisions and first oil. Output reported in Q3 2026 largely reflects completions and well work performed in prior quarters, meaning any pullback in response to softer prices would show up in the survey data with a delay.

Price commentary in the survey is executive opinion rather than forecast, and the Dallas Fed presents it as sentiment data. Still, the consistency of the uncertainty theme across respondents gives the reading weight as a leading indicator of capital discipline among shale producers.

The watch item: whether the production gains reported for Q3 hold into the fourth quarter, or whether price uncertainty translates into a lower rig count and fewer completions as firms roll out 2027 budgets.