Seaborne petroleum product shipments from Nigeria averaged 561,000 b/d in the second quarter of 2026, a seven-fold increase from the 79,000 b/d annual average recorded in 2023, according to Vortexa data. Exports alone reached 350,000 b/d in 2Q26, against 46,000 b/d in 2023.

The Lekki-based Dangote refinery, which started operations in January 2024, underpins the shift. Before the Dangote Group commissioned the plant, Nigeria's state-owned refineries shipped less than 100,000 b/d of seaborne petroleum products to domestic ports and other countries.

Product shipments expanded in two distinct steps. The first came when Dangote began operations; the second followed completion of maintenance and expansion work in February 2026, a period that coincided with supply constraints out of the Strait of Hormuz.

What did the February turnaround change?

Maintenance completed in February 2026 raised the refinery's crude oil distillation capacity from 650,000 b/d to 700,000 b/d. Higher runs at Dangote, combined with disrupted product trade through the Strait of Hormuz, lifted total shipments — both intra-Nigerian movements and exports.

The capacity increase is sanctioned and operating, not appraisal-stage planning. The next expansion remains on paper: the Dangote Group plans to double capacity by adding a second 750,000-b/d crude distillation unit by 2028.

How has the trade flow rebalanced?

Intra-Nigerian shipments climbed to 211,000 b/d in 2Q26, up from 81,000 b/d in 2025 and 33,000 b/d in 2023. By moving product to other parts of the country by sea, Dangote has cut Nigeria's dependence on imported fuel.

The import numbers show the scale of the substitution. Nigeria imported nearly 400,000 b/d of petroleum products in 2023; seaborne imports fell to less than 130,000 b/d in 2Q26.

Exports have grown on two fronts:

• Europe: seaborne product exports averaged 130,000 b/d in 2Q26, up from 40,000 b/d in 2025 and 15,000 b/d in 2023.
• Africa: exports to other countries on the continent reached nearly 120,000 b/d in 2Q26, compared with 89,000 b/d in 2025.

Nigeria now plays a larger role in the international products market at a time when supplies from other regions face constraints, according to Vortexa.

What is the watch item?

The 750,000-b/d second crude distillation unit, targeted for 2028, would take Dangote's nameplate capacity to roughly 1.45 million b/d and could push total Nigerian seaborne product shipments well beyond current levels. Traders will also track whether Hormuz-related disruptions persist, since they have amplified the pull on Nigerian barrels in the Atlantic Basin. For refiners in Europe and West Africa, the margin question is now competitive: a 700,000-b/d plant running at post-turnaround rates is displacing imports that once anchored regional arbitrage.