US crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 3.0 million bbl for the week ended Sept. 18, the US Energy Information Administration reported. At 426.4 million bbl, commercial crude stocks now sit about 2% above the 5-year average for this time of year.

The build came as refinery crude inputs fell. Refinery runs averaged 16.8 million b/d, down 519,000 b/d from the previous week's average, with refineries operating at 94% of capacity. Gasoline production averaged 9.6 million b/d, while distillate output declined to 5.2 million b/d.

Products draw

Product inventories moved in the opposite direction from crude. Gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million bbl and stand 6% below the 5-year average. Distillate inventories declined 400,000 bbl, leaving them 12% below the 5-year average — the tightest position relative to seasonal norms among the major products in this week's report.

Propane-propylene stocks decreased 1.2 million bbl but remain 20% above the 5-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose just 0.1 million bbl over the week, as the draws in refined products largely offset the crude build.

Trade flows

Crude imports fell 1.2 million b/d to 5.9 million b/d. The 4-week average of 6.6 million b/d runs 5.3% above the year-ago level. Gasoline imports averaged 401,000 b/d for the week, with distillate imports at 85,000 b/d.

Demand indicators were mixed over the past four weeks. Total product supplied averaged 20.6 million b/d, up 0.5% year over year. Gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million b/d, down 0.8% from a year earlier. Distillate product supplied rose 0.3% year over year to 3.6 million b/d. Jet fuel product supplied posted the strongest gain, up 6.2% year over year on a 4-week average basis.

Watch items

Two lines in the report warrant close attention in coming weeks. First, the combination of easing refinery runs — down more than half a million b/d week over week, consistent with early autumn turnaround activity — and distillate inventories 12% below the 5-year average sets up a tight heating oil picture heading into the fourth quarter if draws continue while units come offline. Second, the crude build against falling imports suggests domestic supply is more than covering refinery demand; the size and pace of any further SPR-adjacent commercial builds into October will shape the front of the crude curve. Traders will also be watching whether jet fuel's 6.2% year-over-year demand growth holds as airline schedules shift after the summer season.