By James Calloway

Enverus expects US shale output to hold roughly flat over the next decade rather than extend the two-decade expansion that defined the shale revolution, and the firm frames the shift in one phrase: US shale is "aging, not broken."

Dane Gregoris, managing director of oil and gas research at Enverus Intelligence Research, laid out that conclusion in the latest Insights episode of the Oil & Gas Journal ReEnterprised podcast, in conversation with Mikaila Adams, OGJ managing editor and content strategist. His message for operators is direct: growth is slowing not because the resource is exhausted, but because inventories are maturing and geology is getting harder to offset through efficiency gains alone.

What does the data show?

The assessment rests on measurable deterioration across North America's major basins:

• Declining productivity per lateral foot drilled.
• Deteriorating inventory quality as operators work through their best locations.
• A methodology Enverus uses to count remaining drilling locations basin by basin.

Gregoris explains why those indicators point to relatively stable US production over the next ten years, and why rising marginal supply costs could become an increasingly important market signal for buyers and investors watching where the next barrel comes from.

The takeaway in plain words: the wells still work, but each new one returns less per foot than the last, and the market will price that.

Is the Permian still the cornerstone?

Yes — Enverus still views the Permian basin as the anchor of North American oil supply well into the 2040s. That is the sanctioned core of the outlook, and no other US basin comes close on remaining scale.

But the report also finds the Permian is not immune to resource maturation. Gregoris points to evidence that operators are moving down the quality curve, drilling locations that would have been passed over a few years ago.

The offset, in his view, is technical rather than geological. He discusses emerging technologies that could lift recoveries and reshape the long-term outlook:

• Ultra-long laterals.
• Lightweight proppants.
• Advanced surfactants.

None of these is a cure, and the report treats them as recovery-improving tools rather than a return to rapid growth.

The practical read: the Permian's plateau arrives later than everyone else's, and technology decides how much later.

Why does Canada matter more now?

The report's second major theme is the growing strategic weight of Canadian supply. As US shale growth moderates, Enverus sees Canada's oil sands and liquids-rich plays as increasingly important sources of future barrels.

Gregoris cites one decisive advantage: Canada's resource base offers substantially longer inventory duration than most US plays.

Realizing that potential depends on infrastructure as much as geology. He identifies four gating factors:

• Pipeline development.
• Condensate availability for diluent.
• Natural gas infrastructure.
• LNG export capacity.

The takeaway: Canada has the inventory; pipelines and gas systems will set the pace at which it reaches market.

What changes by 2035?

Looking toward 2035, the discussion widens to energy security, capital allocation, and global oil markets. For operators, the shift matters in three concrete ways: capital once chased US growth inventory and now faces a thinner menu of high-quality locations; Canadian barrels and the infrastructure to move them become strategic rather than marginal; and technology spending shifts from drilling faster to recovering more from wells already on the books.

Enverus, founded as a data analytics platform and a standard reference for upstream benchmarking, is not calling the end of US supply. The United States will remain the continent's dominant producer. The change is in the slope, not the ranking.

Watch the marginal supply cost line: when it starts moving, it tells you where the next decade of North American barrels comes from.