ING Sees Brent Averaging $77/Bbl in 2027 as Surplus Builds

ING's base case puts Brent crude at an average of $77/bbl in 2027, assuming no significant or prolonged supply disruptions and a gradual build in global market surplus. The forecast, published by the bank's economics team on its THINK platform, frames a market that still carries a risk premium but is drifting toward looser fundamentals.

The number matters for budgeting across both sides of the barrel. Upstream planners calibrating breakevens and refiners modeling crack economics for 2027 now have a mid-case anchor that sits below the levels trade has grown accustomed to during the Persian Gulf tensions of recent years.

Why the risk premium persists

ING assumes occasional flare-ups between the US and Iran continue. That means a full normalisation of Persian Gulf supplies remains some way off, and the oil market is likely to retain a degree of risk premium in prices.

In plain terms: the bank does not expect a clean return of sanctioned barrels any time soon, but it also does not build a disruption scenario into its central path. The $77/bbl average is a midpoint between those forces.

What could test OPEC cohesion?

The bank's second call concerns producer-group politics. ING believes harmony within OPEC could be tested, with the possibility of further members leaving the group.

The supply implication is direct. Further OPEC departures — especially Venezuela or Persian Gulf producers — could increase supply and create downside risk to ING's Brent price forecasts, the bank's Quick Insights note states.

For practitioners, the distinction matters: this is scenario risk around the central forecast, not the base case itself. A $77/bbl average already assumes a gradual surplus build; an OPEC exit that returns constrained volumes to market would push the balance looser still.

The takeaway: OPEC's ability to hold its membership together is now a variable in the 2027 price deck, not a background assumption.

European gas: what goes up must come down

ING's third call targets the European gas market. TTF prices have strengthened significantly in 2026, the bank notes. But, in its words, "what goes up must come down" — and ING believes prices could fall sharply next year.

The bank's quantitative marker: TTF is expected to trade below €40/MWh by end-2027. Four drivers underpin that call:

• Normalisation of Persian Gulf LNG flows
• Industrial demand destruction at current price levels
• The potential for mild weather
• Increased US LNG export capacity reaching the market

The demand-destruction point deserves attention from downstream readers. If European industrials have already rationalised gas consumption at 2026 prices, the demand base entering 2027 is structurally smaller, compounding the effect of new LNG supply.

For gas-fired power and petrochemical feedstock buyers, a sub-€40/MWh TTF by end-2027 would mark a decisive reversal from the tightness that has defined the European market since the middle of the decade. For US LNG developers, it signals a more competitive Atlantic-basin arbitrage environment as export capacity ramps.

The takeaway: ING treats 2026's European gas strength as cyclical, not structural, and expects new LNG supply plus destroyed demand to bend the curve down.

What changes for operators

Taken together, the three calls sketch a 2027 in which oil floats modestly lower on a building surplus, but with two sources of volatility priced in: US–Iran friction that keeps a floor under crude, and OPEC cohesion risk that could remove one.

Planning teams should treat the $77/bbl figure as a base case with asymmetric risks — Persian Gulf disruption pushing up, membership exits pushing down — rather than a point forecast to build against. On the gas side, European buyers gain a credible case for waiting out current prices, while LNG offtakers face a narrower margin environment by end-2027.

ING's publication is informational analysis, not investment advice, as the bank's own disclaimer states. The forecasts carry weight because of their internal consistency: surplus, cohesion risk and gas loosening all point the same direction.

The watch items are the ones ING itself flags: any US–Iran de-escalation, the next OPEC membership decision, and the pace of US LNG capacity additions through 2027.