Global oil demand could reach nearly 130 million bpd by 2035 under McKinsey's Hydrocarbon Resilience scenario, a 30% increase from current levels, the consultancy said in its Global Energy Perspective 2026, published October 5.

The figure frames a central message of the report: the energy transition has become an energy expansion, and the range of plausible outcomes for the global energy system has widened substantially.

McKinsey projects oil demand growth of more than 2.5 million barrels per day annually over the next decade, roughly twice the previous decade's rate. The consultancy flags this as a risk signal for operators planning exclusively around an early peak in oil demand.

How did 2025 reshape the baseline?

Total energy demand rose 2.7% in 2025, with oil, gas, coal and renewables all increasing simultaneously. Data centres emerged as the fastest-growing load segment in OECD power markets, on a projected 24% CAGR to 2030 in the Continued Momentum scenario, and are expected to consume 10-15% of global power by 2030.

The post-2030 picture remains highly uncertain, McKinsey cautions, and could be dampened by efficiency breakthroughs in computing power.

What does the scenario set look like?

The 2026 edition introduces four scenarios and a revised bottom-up energy model, examining affordability and security alongside decarbonisation and the pace of economic growth through 2050. The bookends range from continued growth in fossil-fuel demand to accelerated decarbonisation, and from integrated global markets to a Fragmented Energy Order.

How acute is the geopolitical risk premium?

In the Fragmented Energy Order, rebuilding concentrated supply chains outside China could raise solar capex by 20-25% and battery-storage capex by 40-50% in the European Union and the United States. Trade friction could also push fuel costs higher through longer routes, increased insurance costs and reduced trading flexibility.

Humayun Tai, Senior Partner and Global Leader of McKinsey's Energy & Materials Practice, pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as the clearest recent test of those strategies.

"The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the clearest example of this risk: maritime traffic through the world's most critical energy chokepoint fell more than 90%, energy prices surged across fuels and continents, and strategies built around diversified LNG were tested in real time," he said.

What is the binding constraint?

Across all four scenarios, infrastructure readiness is the most common binding constraint. Transmission, storage, firm capacity, permitting and interconnection now determine how quickly low-cost generation becomes reliable, usable energy. When those lag, electrification stalls, regardless of how cheap renewables become.

McKinsey also warns that the next energy crisis is as likely to be driven by equipment, labour, batteries or critical minerals as by barrels of oil. Energy security, the consultancy argues, is now a system-architecture challenge, not a fuel-diversification question.

How should executives respond?

Partner Diego Hernandez Diaz framed the period as one of genuine uncertainty.

"Our aim is to help executives understand those risks and opportunities, recognise the market signals that may warrant a change in direction, while building portfolios that remain robust across a range of possible futures but clearly take a position into the future evolution of the system," he said.

The report positions scenario planning as a core strategy-management capability. Rather than identifying one correct forecast, organisations can use scenarios to flag strategic vulnerabilities, preserve optionality and track the signposts that should trigger changes in capital allocation.

Watch item: how operators respond to the 130 mbpd Hydrocarbon Resilience case in 2027 capex cycles, and whether data-centre load growth tracks the 24% CAGR or breaks lower on compute efficiency gains.