Middle East LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply has not recovered in any meaningful way seven and a half months after the Iran war choked oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The chokepoint carried one-fifth of global LNG before the conflict. Only sporadic cargoes now squeeze through.

Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG producer, sits at the centre of the shortfall. The country's exports are described as "barely moving" in current trade-flow reporting. The supply gap that opened in March shows no sign of structural closure, and the global market is operating on a smaller Gulf envelope as a result.

The takeaway: one-fifth of daily global LNG supply remains absent, and the rebound importing utilities had expected has not materialised.

What did the Hormuz route carry before the war?

The strait served as a transit artery for roughly 20% of globally traded LNG. Qatari export terminals fed the route with cargoes bound for buyers across importing regions, and the waterway also moved crude oil and condensate from regional fields. The LNG leg dominated trade-flow value.

Since March, only occasional cargoes have managed to transit the chokepoint. Iran's naval activity during the conflict disrupted commercial shipping schedules and pushed most vessels to alternative routings. The shift removed a swing artery from the global gas market almost overnight, with the rare shipments that do clear the strait making little practical difference to importers.

The takeaway: the strait functioned as a structural pillar of seaborne LNG trade, and its effective closure resets the supply picture across both basins.

Why has Qatar's recovery stalled?

Qatar ranked as the second-largest LNG producer globally before the war. The country depends on Hormuz transit for the bulk of its cargo liftings, and the conflict interrupted both vessel movement and the commercial terms that underwrite the trade.

Seven and a half months on, Qatar's export programme remains depressed. Long-term offtakers in Asia and Europe face an extended period of reduced Gulf-origin supply. Spot buyers absorb the marginal cargoes that do reach the market, but the volumes do not approach the country's pre-war cadence or contract obligations.

The takeaway: the supply gap is structural rather than a temporary wartime distortion, and no quick recovery path has emerged.

How is the global gas market absorbing the loss?

The market "suddenly found itself without a fifth of daily LNG supplies" when the conflict began. Importing utilities responded by drawing on storage and pipeline alternatives. Buyers across importing regions now compete for limited spot supply, with price benchmarks across both basins moving in response to every cargo nomination out of the Gulf.

The rare shipments that do arrive do not make a meaningful dent in the deficit. Trade-flow desks, contract structures and supply assumptions have all reset to reflect a smaller Middle East envelope. The market is no longer pricing a swift Hormuz normalisation.

The takeaway: the new supply floor is structural, and importing regions have absorbed the cost through tighter balances and revised contract terms.

What to watch

• Qatari export schedule updates for the remainder of the year
• Hormuz transit security and insurance postings
• Spot cargo nominations through year-end
• Long-term offtake renegotiations in Asia and Europe
• Any restart signal from regional export terminals