OPEC-plus crude production climbed to its wartime high in September, according to Energy Intelligence's latest monthly survey of the 23-nation producer group.

The survey finding marks the highest combined output from the alliance since Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended global crude trade in 2022, Energy Intelligence reported. The publication did not publish a month-on-month barrel-per-day delta in the headline dispatch, but the September reading itself is the operational number that moves the story: the group is pumping more crude now than at any point during the conflict period.

Why is September output at a high?

The producer group's supply has been on an upward trajectory as voluntary cuts come off. Eight OPEC-plus members with additional quotas have been phasing out 2.2 million b/d of voluntary restraint in staged increments, a program the group began unwinding in spring 2024 and has since accelerated despite soft market conditions.

That acceleration is the direct mechanical driver behind the September reading. Every incremental monthly tranch restored by the eight members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — adds barrels to the group's combined total, and September's survey figure confirms the trend has pushed aggregate output past every previous wartime monthly mark.

Energy Intelligence compiles its figures from industry sources, tanker tracking, and producer notifications. The September survey is the company's most current read on group-wide supply.

What does higher OPEC-plus supply mean for the market?

Analysts read rising alliance output against a market backdrop of ample non-OPEC supply — notably record US shale-plus-Guyana volumes — and softening demand growth in China, the world's largest crude importer. Several banks and trading houses have flagged the risk that the market flips into surplus next year if the group keeps restoring barrels at the current pace.

Price commentary in this space remains analysis to attribute, not fact: forecasters differ on whether the group's own reference-basket prices, which several OPEC delegates have described as uncomfortably low, will force a pause in the unwinding schedule. OPEC-plus ministers have repeatedly said the schedule can pause or reverse depending on market conditions — language that keeps the timing of any pause deliberately flexible.

What is the watch item?

The next scheduled full OPEC-plus ministerial meeting, and the intervening monthly decision by the eight members on whether to proceed with the next output increment, are the decision points that will determine whether October extends the September record or breaks the streak.

Market participants will also be watching for:

• The eight members' decision on the next voluntary-cut tranche
• Any revision to Energy Intelligence's September survey figures as secondary-source data firms up ahead of OPEC's own monthly report
• Kazakhstan's and Iraq's compliance with quota commitments, a persistent swing factor in group totals

For refiners tracking crude availability, the September high signals lengthening medium-sour supply into a market where complex refining margins have benefited from discounted Russian and OPEC-plus grades. Terminal loaders at key export points — Russia's Baltic and Black Sea ports, Iraq's Basrah complex, and West Africa — remain the physical chokepoints to watch as the group's barrels compete for placement.

Energy Intelligence's survey is a headline-only dispatch in this instance; the full monthly breakdown by country was not included in the initial report. The September total nonetheless stands as the group's benchmark wartime output mark against which October supply, the next ministerial decision, and the winter demand season will now be measured.