Senegal Targets 12 GW by 2050 as Oil Still Fuels 72.5% of Power

Oil-based fuels generated 72.5 percent of Senegal's electricity in 2024, according to government figures, and that single number now drives an energy diversification programme spanning gas pipelines, LNG conversions and a near-twentyfold capacity expansion by mid-century.

Under its Vision 2050 plan, Dakar aims to lift installed electricity production from 1.74 GW today to 12 GW by 2050. The strategy rests on four stated pillars: expanding generation to meet rising demand, advancing regional grid integration, shifting from heavy fuel oil to domestic natural gas, and widening electricity access in rural areas. Access reached roughly 84 percent by 2023, up sharply in recent years but short of the previous administration's universal-access target of 2025.

The financial case for diversification is stark. The U.S. International Trade Administration estimates Senegal's generation costs at 34 to 38 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour, while consumers pay roughly 24 cents. The treasury covers the gap through subsidies. Substituting domestic gas and renewables for imported liquid fuels is the government's stated route to cutting that burden.

What does the previous Gas to Power strategy still require?

The prior administration's plan set three deadlines: universal electricity access by 2025, conversion of heavy fuel oil plants to LNG, and a 40 percent renewable share of the generation mix by 2030. Conversion work has begun. The 335-MW Bel Air power plant is undergoing a switch to LNG, the first concrete move away from heavy fuel oil in the thermal fleet.

Renewable capacity reached approximately 624.8 MW in 2025, up from just 56 MW in 2014. Solar supplied about 49 percent of the renewable mix in 2023, wind 35 percent and hydropower 16 percent.

Which renewable projects reached financial close or startup?

Three projects anchor the renewables build-out:

• NEA Kolda, Casamance. AXIAN Energy completed financing in April for the €90 million photovoltaic plant, after beginning construction with its own funds in May 2025. The project pairs 60 MW of solar capacity with a 72-MWh battery storage system. The €72 million finance package was structured by the Emerging Africa and Asia Infrastructure Fund and Dutch development bank FMO. State utility Senelec has signed a 25-year power purchase agreement to supply more than 235,000 households.
• Thiès and Louga solar. In July, water utility SEN'EAU — jointly owned by SUEZ and Senegalese stakeholders — partnered with TotalEnergies to inaugurate two solar plants at drinking water facilities. The 33,600 panels deliver a combined 21 MW and cover up to 32 percent of the sites' energy needs, cutting both cost and the carbon footprint of the water sector.
• Taiba N'Diaye wind farm. Senegal's first large-scale wind project entered service in 2021 with 46 turbines and 158.7 MW of capacity, supplying power to more than 2 million people and adding roughly 15 percent to national electricity capacity.

The takeaway: sanctioned renewables projects total roughly 240 MW across the three schemes, with storage now part of the financing model.

How much acreage is on offer to explorers?

In October, Energy and Petroleum Minister El Hadji Abdourahmane Diouf announced the availability of 104 oil and gas blocks to attract investors and accelerate exploration and production. The offering follows a March 2026 reorganisation of 113 blocks — 65 onshore and 48 offshore. Four blocks are already under contract. Eni is running technical studies on a further five.

These blocks sit at the exploration and appraisal stage; no new production commitments accompany the announcement. The bid round targets the investment needed to convert acreage into reserves alongside the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim development already feeding the country's gas plans.

Who is building the gas grid?

State pipeline operator Réseau Gazier du Sénégal is seeking an additional €530 million to expand its network and supply natural gas to several power stations by 2029. In September, RGS commenced the first €275 million stage of a planned 400-km underground distribution network. The line will connect the offshore Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas field — the BP-operated development straddling the maritime border with Mauritania — to a 250-MW gas-fired power plant in northern Senegal. Upgrades will follow in phases, eventually linking the field to additional plants.

The pipeline schedule and the 2029 supply target now form the critical path for the heavy-fuel-to-gas switch. In plain terms: without the grid, the LNG conversions cannot run.

What is the watch item?

Investor response to the 104-block offering will test whether Senegal can monetise its exploration frontier while the RGS pipeline phases determine the pace of fuel switching. The 2030 target of a 40 percent renewable mix, set under the Gas to Power strategy, remains the government's principal benchmark — and the subsidies funding the 10-to-14-cent gap between generation cost and tariff remain the measure of urgency.

By Olivia Hart, Rig & Refinery