U.S. LNG export capacity is on track to roughly double from 18.7 Bcf/d today to 37.4 Bcf/d by 2031 on projects under construction, and global supply shocks are now pulling a second wave of final investment decisions forward across the U.S. Gulf Coast, Canada, and Mexico.

The macro driver is blunt. The March outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off roughly 20% of global LNG trade, according to analysis of the market impacts. Iranian strikes damaged Qatari export terminals, potentially curbing Qatari output for three to five years. QatarEnergy has repeatedly extended force majeure declarations on contracted cargoes.

Europe compounds the shortage. The region enters the winter heating season with natural gas inventories at 15-year lows, after most buyers delayed summer restocking on expectations that the conflict would end quickly. Storage sits well below the 80% threshold the European Commission mandates for November, forcing European importers into a bidding war with Asian buyers for spot cargoes.

What do higher premiums mean for North American exporters?

The supply squeeze has pushed premiums of global LNG markers over the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark to their highest levels since early 2023. Late last year, ample U.S. supply and tight margins had briefly pushed spot export profitability below the standard fixed liquefaction fee of $2–3 per million Btu.

Long-term fixed-fee contracts limit most exporters' exposure to spot prices, but the higher international premiums have strengthened earnings on uncontracted capacity and provided commercial backing for a new wave of expansion, analysts note.

Portfolio positioning reflects the shift. Cheniere targets roughly 90% of its portfolio contracted long term and is fully sold for 2026, with less than 2% of near-term capacity unsold. Venture Global, historically more spot-exposed through commissioning cargoes, had locked in 91% of its available 2026 cargoes by the end of the second quarter, leaving about 9% open to spot prices.

For scale: the U.S. consumed 91.9 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2025, per EIA data, so the 18.7 Bcf/d capacity build is a material demand driver.

Which projects have reached FID in 2026?

Three major U.S. projects have been sanctioned so far this year:

• CP2 LNG Phase 2 — Venture Global, 1.1 Bcf/d, FID and financial close in March.
• Commonwealth LNG — Caturus Energy, 1.3 Bcf/d (9.5 mtpa), Cameron, Louisiana, FID in May.
• Delfin FLNG 1 — Delfin Midstream, 0.6 Bcf/d, $5 billion FID in June.

Long-term, firm commercial commitments remain the prerequisite for underwriting new construction, and European and Asian buyers have signed a new wave of SPAs with North American exporters since the conflict began.

What is next in the FID queue?

U.S. developers are advancing projects totaling about 6.4 Bcf/d, after signing 5.2 Bcf/d of long-term agreements last year. Established players such as Cheniere and Venture Global are pursuing capital-efficient bolt-on expansions at existing terminals, while independents advance floating LNG and greenfield sites.

The near-term pipeline:

• Texas LNG — Glenfarne Energy Transition, 0.5 Bcf/d, FID expected by end-2026.
• Delfin FLNG 2 — Delfin Midstream, 0.6 Bcf/d, FID expected by end-2026.
• Ksi Lisims LNG — Canada, 1.6 Bcf/d, targeting year-end FID with government support.
• LNG Canada Phase 2 — 1.8 Bcf/d expansion, targeting year-end FID.
• Amigo LNG — Mexico, 1.1 Bcf/d, positioning for FID before year-end.

Each new export terminal requires supporting midstream buildout from the wellhead to the dock, positioning LNG exports as the largest driver of incremental U.S. natural gas demand over the next few years, according to the analysis.

The watch items: whether Texas LNG and Delfin FLNG 2 reach sanction by December 31, whether Ksi Lisims, LNG Canada Phase 2, and Amigo LNG close their FIDs on schedule, and whether Qatari force majeure declarations extend further into the 2026 contracting cycle.