US LNG exports will exceed 120 million tonnes in 2026, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sept. 22, marking a second consecutive annual record as new Gulf Coast liquefaction capacity ramps up.

"Last year, for the first time in history, a country exported more than 100 million tonnes of LNG—and that country was the United States. And this year, we are on track to surpass 120 million tonnes," Wright said in a post on X. He credited companies including Caturus, which recently announced a major expansion of its Gulf Coast export plant.

The growth comes primarily from commissioning of new projects along the Gulf Coast and expansion of existing terminals. Three regulatory decisions this year frame the ramp-up.

At Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana, the Department of Energy in March authorized an immediate 13% increase in exports, lifting total authorized capacity to 3.85 bcfd. The plant has continued ramping up since starting operations.

In February, DOE approved a further expansion at Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi LNG project in Texas, adding up to 0.47 bcfd and bringing the project's total authorized export capacity to 4.45 bcfd.

Away from the Gulf Coast, DOE approved a 22% increase in export capacity for the Elba Island LNG terminal in Georgia in April. Additional US LNG projects remain in development or construction.

Marginal supplier role

The US has emerged in recent years as the world's largest LNG exporter and a key supplier to the European gas market following the decline in Russian pipeline gas deliveries. Most US liquefaction capacity sits along the Gulf Coast, with access to European and Asian markets via the Atlantic and the Panama Canal. That geometry lets traders redirect cargoes in response to regional price differences, cementing the US role as the global marginal supplier of LNG.

That role drew particular attention this year. Iranian actions disrupted LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting into supplies from Qatar and the wider Gulf region, while US gas production and liquefaction infrastructure remained unaffected. Wright cited the disruption when he approved the Plaquemines expansion in March. As global buyers diversify supply sources, the strategic value of US LNG has risen further.

Domestic pushback

The export boom has critics at home. In February, lawmakers including US Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Wright citing US Energy Information Administration analysis. They argued that LNG export growth is a significant factor driving up US natural gas prices and warned that expanding exports could raise heating and electricity costs for consumers. The debate is likely to intensify.

Domestic gas demand is rising on its own account. Data center construction and AI infrastructure are pulling electricity demand higher, while additional LNG export projects compete for the same supply.

So far, the domestic market has absorbed the increase. After a cold-weather spike in January, Henry Hub has hovered around $3/MMbtu since spring — evidence, in the view of EIA forecasters, of how quickly US supply has kept pace with rising LNG demand.

EIA projects US marketed natural gas production will increase by 4.5 bcfd in 2026 and another 4.6 bcfd in 2027, partly reflecting higher oil prices and growth in associated gas output. The Permian and Haynesville regions together account for more than 70% of forecast production growth.

Watch item: Whether the remaining Gulf Coast projects under construction start up on schedule — and whether the Warren-led challenge to export expansions gains legislative traction — will determine if the 120-million-tonne figure stands as a waypoint rather than a ceiling.