Saudi Aramco's chief executive told a London energy conference that nearly three billion barrels of oil have left the market since the Middle East conflict began, with another six billion barrels of inventories now "practically unavailable" to absorb any fresh supply shock.

"Until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and confidence returns, the harsh reality is that pressure on both the supply and demand sides will intensify," CEO Amin Nasser told delegates, according to a Reuters dispatch from the event.

How long to refill?

Replenishing global inventories depleted since the 28 February outbreak of war could take up to two years, Nasser said. Roughly one billion barrels have already been released from commercial inventories to balance the market. The remaining six billion barrels sit largely outside reach on the timeline needed by refiners, he argued.

"The system is already stretched to its limits," Nasser said, noting that withdrawals so far have come mainly from commercial stocks rather than government-controlled strategic reserves.

What does the export data show?

Kpler tracking data from late September showed crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers climbing to 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in September — the highest level since the war began in late February. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates drove the increase, the Kpler data showed.

Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to rise to about 7.4 million bpd this month as Aramco rerouted exports from a Red Sea terminal to an eastern Gulf port after attacks damaged the East–West pipeline. Disruption to that cross-peninsula line has pushed Saudi cargoes eastward through eastern Gulf terminals.

Key flow points from Kpler tracking and Reuters reporting:

• Middle East crude exports: 12.8 million bpd in September, highest since the war began in late February
• Saudi Arabia and the UAE led the increase
• Strait of Hormuz tanker flows: about 7.4 million bpd projected for this month
• Saudi Aramco rerouted from a Red Sea terminal to an eastern Gulf port after East–West pipeline damage

What is the geopolitical risk premium?

PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga pointed to a Middle East ceasefire that "remains nowhere in sight." Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis have resumed hostilities in recent weeks, and infrastructure attacks continue. "Attacks on energy infrastructure and vessels will continue, keeping the geopolitical risk premium high," Varga said in a Tuesday note.

How did the conflict start?

The war began with US–Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. Tehran responded by severely restricting maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz through tanker attacks and threats against cargo ships. The United States imposed a naval blockade on Iran in April. At various stages of the conflict, both countries used military force against ships that did not comply with their blockades.

What to watch

The next operational data point is October export flows through the Strait of Hormuz, projected at roughly 7.4 million bpd. Saudi Aramco's progress toward East–West pipeline repairs and any restart of pre-war loading patterns at the Red Sea terminal remain the parallel watch item for traders tracking Saudi barrels, Asian-Pacific fuel-oil demand, and European diesel margins heading into the northern-hemisphere winter.