Atlantic Basin LNG export utilisation fell to a four-week moving average of 80% in the week ending 31 May, down from a March high of 89%, according to Vortexa analyst Florence Yu.

The dip reflects seasonal maintenance at major US Gulf Coast terminals rather than any structural loosening of supply, Yu wrote in a recent market note. The basin's share of global LNG supply has nonetheless climbed from 44% in February to 55% in May 2026, as Middle Eastern output remains disrupted.

How much spare capacity is actually available?

Strip out Russia's sanctioned terminals — 16 mtpa of nameplate capacity — and Egypt's largely idle export facilities (12 mtpa), and Atlantic Basin utilisation averaged close to 100% in March and still ran about 90% in May. "In truth, this does not mean there is material scope to unlock short-term production upside," Yu wrote.

US liquefaction has operated above 100% of nameplate capacity for much of 2026. Outside the US, Nigeria LNG averaged roughly 90% utilisation, while Russia's Yamal LNG ran at about 120%.

What is driving the May decline?

Atlantic Basin LNG exports fell from a record 18.5 mt in March to 17.7 mt in May. The trajectory matches the typical seasonal pattern: global LNG utilisation over the past three years has averaged 88% in Q1 and 81% between June and August. For the Atlantic Basin specifically, average summer utilisation was 74% in 2023-25.

The May softness tracked planned downtime on the US Gulf Coast:

• Freeport (16.5 mtpa): entered planned maintenance in mid-May, lasting several weeks
• Cameron (13.5 mtpa): completed about 30 days of annual maintenance on one train
• Corpus Christi: recorded a partial outage earlier in May
• Sabine Pass: no prolonged downtime expected in 2026

US operators had earlier floated the idea of deferring scheduled work to lift cargoes into a tight market and capture elevated prices. Yu observed that operators "mostly appear to be proceeding as planned" with maintenance, ahead of an anticipated pick-up in Asian summer demand.

What is the hurricane risk for US terminals?

NOAA forecasts a "below-normal" 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The 2025 season was forecast active but ended with no US hurricane landfalls, leaving LNG operations largely untouched. The most recent material storm-driven outage came in July 2024, when Hurricane Beryl caused Gulf Coast power outages and loading delays, forcing Freeport off-line for two weeks. If the 2026 outlook holds, US terminals should run relatively undisturbed through the June-November storm window.

Will new capacity offset the outage drag?

Net Atlantic Basin supply growth over the summer depends on commissioning ramps offsetting lost maintenance days. Golden Pass's 6 mtpa Train 1 entered service in April and had shipped only two cargoes by end-May across six weeks of operation.

Outside the US, Atlantic LNG's 5.2 mtpa Train 4 in Trinidad and Tobago went off-line in late May for more than 50 days of scheduled work extending into July. Angola LNG's 5.2 mtpa facility follows with maintenance in July-August.

What to watch

Qatari output remains the swing factor. The timing of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is still unclear, and Yu noted that even a swift reopening would leave Qatari supply rebuilding over several months.

Key items: the duration of Freeport's mid-May outage, the late-July restart of Atlantic LNG Train 4, NOAA's August update on storm formation in the Gulf, and the commissioning trajectory of Golden Pass Train 1.