Brent front-month futures peaked at $109/b on September 15, 2026, with spot crude touching $132/b, as escalating strikes on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia pushed the market to its highest levels since the war began. Prices averaged around $104/b in the final two weeks of the third quarter, according to the US Energy Information Administration's market review, with principal contributor Jimmy Troderman attributing the strength to supply disruptions — particularly out of Saudi Arabia — that left buyers scrambling for short-term barrels.

The quarter began on a far different note. Brent opened 3Q26 at $72/b on July 1, its lowest level since February 26, two days before the war started. The soft opening reflected increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz in June, after the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding briefly calmed the waterway. That reprieve ended on July 7, when military strikes resumed and the futures price broke $100/b on July 23. From there, Brent traded in a $79–98/b band until September 8, with daily volatility tracking the conflict.

What pushed Brent back above $100/b?

Futures cleared $100/b again on September 9 after an escalation of military action against energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia. Two structural demand-and-supply shifts compounded the escalation:

• China's crude imports, which had absorbed part of the supply shock since April by running well below pre-war levels, rose in 3Q26 from their May and June lows, adding demand back into the market.
• Releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve slowed significantly in September, removing a supply cushion as the disruption dragged on.

Spot prices felt the squeeze more sharply than futures. As in April, outages — particularly from Saudi Arabia — put upward pressure on physical differentials because buyers struggled to find short-term supply. Markets spent the last two weeks of the quarter balancing peace discussions against the possibility of a wider-scale war, holding Brent near $104/b.

How did US refiners respond?

US refineries ran at unseasonally high levels for a second consecutive quarter, averaging 95% utilization in 3Q26 and processing the most crude oil for a third quarter since 2019 — when US refining capacity stood 4% higher than it does today. Strong transportation fuel margins drove the high runs.

The margin picture diverged sharply by product:

• Gasoline crack spreads more than doubled their year-ago quarterly average, even after declining in the second half of the quarter.
• Distillate crack spreads almost tripled year-ago levels, the strongest of the three major products.
• Jet fuel crack spreads also nearly tripled year-ago levels, second to distillate.

Distillate and jet led the board because disrupted refining operations in Russia, China, and the Middle East had supplied large shares of those fuels to world markets before the war. US distillate supply has tightened on heavy exports to short markets and higher import costs into regions such as the US East Coast.

Where do product inventories stand?

As of the week ending September 25, US distillate inventories sat 13% below the five-year (2021–2025) average — the tightest of the major products. Gasoline stocks were 7% below the five-year average. Jet fuel was the outlier, at 3% above its five-year average.

The inventory gap frames the margin story heading into the fourth quarter. Distillate tightness reflects both the export pull and the loss of refining capacity abroad, and it has translated directly into the crack spreads that kept US utilization at 95% through a quarter when runs typically ease.

What comes next?

The watch items are the peace negotiations referenced in the market's late-quarter pricing, the pace of SPR releases, and whether China's import recovery continues to add demand against constrained Middle Eastern supply. The $79–98/b trading band held for seven weeks; the September escalation broke it. Whether Brent settles nearer the July floor or the September $109/b peak now depends on the trajectory of strikes on energy infrastructure and on any durable agreement covering Hormuz flows.