Crude Settles at 88.56 as Weekend Gulf Risk Frames Monday Trade

December WTI settled at $88.56 on Friday, down 18 cents, or 0.20 percent, after a 1.84-point session range that printed both a higher high and a higher low against Thursday. The contract traded between $87.80 and $89.64. That is the number that frames Monday: a settle sitting above the 5-day settlement average and beneath the 9-day, 20-day and 50-day — a market with no strong opinion and, in the reviewer's reading, a neutral-to-higher bias above Pivot S1 at $87.69.

By Daniel Okafor

What moved Friday's session?

The session low of $87.80 printed in the 5:30 AM ET bar. The 8:30 AM bar, which spanned the producer price index release, was the widest of the day and rose 0.58. The high of $89.64 came at the 9:30 AM open, and the contract eased into the 2:30 PM settlement.

The provider's market commentary attributed the softness to a firmer dollar and to an energy agency's report of a coming global surplus. That is attributed commentary, not established causation, and the desk treats it accordingly. The dollar index rose 0.23 percent to 103.41; the ten-year yield index closed at 5.15. Brent's January contract settled at $95.84, up two cents — flat, in any frame that matters.

The after-hours action deserves its own paragraph. At 3:32 PM ET the news feed carried a Houthi claim of an attack on the Saudi east-west pipeline. At 3:47 PM ET, Iranian state media reported two tankers striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The contract rose to $89.26 in the 4:30 PM bar and closed that bar at $88.92. The coincidence is noted. Causation is not claimed.

Where are the levels?

Resistance stacks from the Pivot Point at $88.67 through $89.15 (Thursday's high), $89.53 (Pivot R1), $89.64 (Friday's high), $89.79 and $90.30 (one and two standard deviations), to $90.51 at Pivot R2.

Support runs:

• $88.56 — Friday's settle
• $88.27 — 9-day average crossing
• $88.10 — stochastic projection
• $87.80 — Friday's low
• $87.69 — Pivot S1
• $87.33 — one standard deviation
• $86.83 — Pivot S2
• $86.13 — 61.8 percent retracement from the 52-week low

What is the trade setup?

The review's primary setup is long from the $87.80–$88.10 band, entered at Friday's low and above Pivot S1. Stop at $86.75, beneath Pivot S2. Targets at $89.15, then $90.35, then $91.55 above Pivot R3 at $91.37. Risk-to-reward runs roughly 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 to the three objectives from the entry midpoint.

Two risk notes carry weight. The 14-day average true range is 4.15 points against a 1.20-point stop distance — the stop is small relative to how far this contract habitually travels, and a single adverse bar can clear it. Two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath $87.80 would remove the edge before the stop itself is hit. A settle below $86.83 negates the thesis outright.

Weekend exposure is the honest caveat. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday, so two full days of Iran and Gulf headlines separate the settle from the next print. Weekend reports of de-escalation with Iran, or a further dollar advance, could gap price through the stop at the reopen. The review calls this an analyst judgment: dips are bought while Gulf supply reports persist.

What does Monday actually test?

One question. Does a dip hold above $87.69 after the weekend headlines, or does a de-escalation report carry the contract through $86.83 toward the $86.13 retracement?

The composite multi-indicator read is 16 percent sell with weak strength, unchanged from a session earlier, with negative direction still leading on both directional systems. Translation for the non-chart reader: the machines lean mildly bearish, without conviction.

Note the calendar detail. All levels reference the December contract, which the provider lists as expiring November 20, 2026 — five sessions of runway from Monday's open.

The watch item: the Sunday 6:00 PM ET reopen, and whether the gap honors the pivot or the headlines.