Saudi Output Up 26%, Strathcona Bids $2.1 Billion for Greenfire

Saudi Arabia reported a 26% increase in crude production, with output approaching pre-war levels, as global oil markets adjusted to the prospect of a post-conflict supply recovery in the week ending November 13, 2026. Oil was on track for a second straight weekly decline. Expectations of additional supply outweighed geopolitical risk tied to ongoing attacks on commercial shipping.

Strathcona Resources anchored the week's corporate activity. The Canadian producer announced a proposed acquisition of Greenfire Resources valued at up to approximately $2.1 billion (C$2.9 billion). The deal reinforces consolidation across the Canadian oil sands sector, where producers pursue scale, operating efficiency, and long-duration production assets.

What is changing on the supply side?

Saudi output recovery is the single data point that moved the market. Iraq, separately, reached an agreement with the United States to facilitate additional exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington signaled restraint toward further military action against Iran, even as fresh attacks on commercial vessels kept transportation risk elevated.

The IEA prepared to accelerate emergency petroleum stock releases through February, adding another potential supply source. Analysts flagged the possibility of renewed price competition among regional producers defending market share.

The takeaway: the market may be shifting from pricing supply disruptions to weighing the consequences of production recovery.

Where is capital moving?

Beyond Strathcona-Greenfire, Diamondback Energy and KKR moved to acquire Five Point Energy's interest in a Permian Basin water infrastructure platform, underlining the rising value of produced-water handling and disposal systems in mature basins.

International portfolio activity stayed active:

• ExxonMobil signed a preliminary agreement to evaluate oil opportunities in Venezuela.
• BP reportedly entered discussions to sell an interest in a Brazilian oil discovery to Petrobras.
• BP agreed to sell a 49.9% stake in an Indonesian retail fuel venture.
• Kolibri Global Energy reported encouraging early results from its False Caney test and Clifton Mack wells.

The takeaway: companies are buying established positions rather than relying on new exploration.

How strong are downstream and gas earnings?

Citgo reported third-quarter profit of approximately $2.2 billion, supported by robust refining margins in tight product markets. ADNOC Gas said third-quarter net income doubled to approximately $1.34 billion and raised its full-year 2026 guidance. Venture Global raised its profit forecast on strong LNG demand.

The divergence matters. Crude prices face pressure from recovering production, while refiners and gas infrastructure operators benefit from feedstock economics, contracts, and product demand. Lower crude prices do not necessarily mean weaker profitability across the value chain.

Is AI power demand reshaping gas markets?

Data center developers searched for available generation equipment, including used industrial turbines and modified jet engines, to meet immediate power requirements. Siemens raised its medium-term outlook on AI-driven data center orders. Venture Global expanded its interest in supplying natural gas to data centers.

In Washington, Congress began considering data center permitting legislation after the midterm elections. COP31 discussions highlighted the tension between European electrification goals and energy affordability.

The takeaway: dispatchable power and rapid deployment capacity carry a growing premium.

What are governments doing?

Ottawa reportedly planned to invest approximately $143 million (C$200 million) in Woodfibre LNG to support a capacity expansion. The U.S. administration finalized a $480 million federal loan to Arena for oil and gas development and extended a shipping-law waiver for 90 days to ease domestic commodity movement. The EIA projected Alaska crude production could rise approximately 13% in 2027.

The watch items

Three variables will define the next phase: the pace of Middle Eastern supply restoration, OPEC+ production decisions, and the willingness of producers to compete on market share. A faster recovery could erode the geopolitical premium, alter producer capital budgets, and pressure revenues — even as refiners gain feedstock and gas infrastructure demand keeps building on electricity growth.