US oil and natural gas production increased in the third quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its latest energy survey — but the same respondents flag price uncertainty as the dominant concern heading into the next drilling cycle.

The Dallas Fed's quarterly survey, which polls operators and service companies across the Eleventh District — the country's most productive oil and gas region, anchored by the Permian basin of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico — recorded a gain in oil and gas production for the period. The central bank bank did not report the magnitude of the production change in the headline finding; readers should treat the direction — up — as the confirmed data point until the full survey tables circulate.

The tension in the release is straightforward. Volumes are rising. Sentiment is not. Producers told the Dallas Fed that uncertainty over where prices settle is complicating decisions on rigs, completions, and capital allocation. That distinction matters for anyone modeling US supply: output today reflects capital committed months ago, while the uncertainty producers describe now will show up in the rig count and completion data of the coming quarters.

For the downstream side, the pattern carries a familiar implication. Rising domestic crude output supports refinery runs and export loadings at Gulf Coast terminals — provided operators keep completing wells. If price uncertainty curbs activity, feedstock growth slows with a lag, tightening the crude balance that refiners and midstream players have come to count on.

Kitco, which reported the survey findings, framed the results as a story of expansion shadowed by doubt. The Dallas Fed survey remains one of the few high-frequency, company-sourced reads on upstream conditions between EIA monthly data releases, which is why its attitudinal questions on prices and activity draw close attention from analysts tracking the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville.

Two cautions for readers. First, the survey covers the Eleventh District; its respondents skew heavily toward Texas and New Mexico basins, so national extrapolation requires care. Second, the production index reading reflects respondents' assessment of the quarter, not a volumetric measurement — the hard numbers arrive separately from the EIA's 914 production data.

The watch item: the next Dallas Fed release and the EIA's short-term outlook revisions, which will show whether the price uncertainty producers cite translates into a lower rig count or slower well completions — the leading indicators that precede any flattening in US oil and gas supply.