EIA Sees Alaska Crude Output Rising 13% in 2027 on North Slope Projects

Alaska's crude oil production is on track to reach 505,000 b/d in 2027, its highest level since 2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency expects a 23,000 b/d (6%) increase in 2026, followed by a 60,000 b/d (13%) rise in 2027.

If those annual increases materialize, they would be the largest since the 1980s, when Alaskan crude production peaked at 2.0 million b/d. After decades of decline, two North Slope projects are turning the trajectory around.

Which projects are driving the growth?

The EIA attributes the reversal to two developments on the North Slope:

• Nuna, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and is expected to reach 20,000 b/d at peak. So far this year it has averaged 10,000 b/d, partially offsetting declines from existing legacy fields.
• Pikka Phase 1, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026 with initial average monthly output of 2,000 b/d. By September 2026 it had climbed to 38,000 b/d, according to Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission data. The EIA expects Pikka to hit peak production of 80,000 b/d by winter 2026–27 — nearly 20% of total Alaskan output in 2025.

For operators watching the basin, Pikka's ramp is the single variable that moves the state forecast. An 80,000 b/d addition from one pad complex would rank among the largest new supply sources on the North Slope in decades.

What broke the 40-year seasonal pattern?

Third-quarter 2026 production grew 4% as Pikka came online, the EIA's STEO data show — the first third-quarter increase in more than 40 years.

The quarter is normally Alaska's weakest. Operators schedule annual maintenance in late summer, and over 2021–2025, third-quarter output ran an average of 7% below first-quarter levels. A rising third-quarter number, rather than a shallower dip, signals that new barrels are arriving faster than maintenance shut-ins and base declines can absorb them.

What does this change for the market?

For pipelines and West Coast refiners that take Alaskan crude, a 505,000 b/d state total adds supply to a stream that has been shrinking since the late 1980s. For ConocoPhillips, Santos and Repsol, the numbers validate satellite developments drilled into mature infrastructure rather than standalone megaprojects.

The growth also narrows the gap between North Slope throughput and the minimum volumes needed to keep the Trans-Alaska pipeline system operating efficiently, a threshold operators have managed around for years.

What to watch

The watch items are Pikka's climb to its 80,000 b/d peak through winter 2026–27 and whether Nuna holds above its year-to-date 10,000 b/d average. The EIA's next STEO revision will test whether the 2027 forecast survives contact with actual ramp rates.

One number frames the story: 505,000 b/d — Alaska's highest output in thirteen years.