Alaska oil output set to rise 13% as North Slope projects ramp

By James Calloway

Alaska’s crude oil production is forecast to rise 13% in 2027 to an average 505,000 barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s November Short-Term Energy Outlook, the highest annual average since 2014.

The EIA expects that gain to amount to about 60,000 bpd. It also projects a 23,000-bpd, or 6%, increase in 2026, reflecting contributions from new projects and improving operating activity. The forecast marks a change for a state that has spent decades losing output despite holding some of the nation’s largest conventional petroleum resources.

Which North Slope projects supply the barrels?

ConocoPhillips began producing at Nuna in December 2024. The EIA outlook puts the project’s 2026 average output at approximately 10,000 bpd, while its design calls for peak production of about 20,000 bpd. Nuna’s contribution also helps offset declines from mature North Slope fields.

Australia’s Santos operates Pikka Phase 1 in partnership with Repsol. The project began producing in May 2026, reached approximately 38,000 bpd by September and is expected to rise toward 80,000 bpd during winter 2026-27. Pikka provides the larger production contribution and ranks among Alaska’s most important new conventional oil developments in recent years.

Both developments sit on the North Slope and draw on established petroleum infrastructure that provides access to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and downstream markets. Their forecast contribution comes from field operations and planned production ramps.

The near-term supply lift comes from two producing developments, with Pikka carrying most of the expected increase.

What does the production reversal mean?

EIA data show that Alaska’s third-quarter 2026 production increased 4% from the same period a year earlier. It was the state’s first third-quarter production increase in more than four decades. If the forecasts hold, the gains would interrupt the long-term decline that followed Alaska’s peak of approximately 2 million bpd in the late 1980s.

Nationally, the EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production at a record 14.3 million bpd in 2027. Alaska’s contribution remains modest compared with the Lower 48, but its projected growth shows how new investment can extend the productive life of an established petroleum region.

The numbers do not mark a return to Alaska’s historical scale; they mark an operating recovery built around producing North Slope assets and existing infrastructure.

This is a material reversal from four decades of decline, though Alaska would remain far below its late-1980s peak.

What changes for the pipeline and project margins?

North Slope production diminished as the state’s output fell, reducing throughput through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Additional barrels would improve pipeline utilization and spread certain fixed transportation costs across a larger volume. The benefit still depends on production levels and infrastructure requirements.

For ConocoPhillips, Santos and their partners, additional production could support project value. The operating case remains sensitive to crude prices, operating costs, transportation expenses and development schedules, so higher volume alone does not resolve the margin question.

Higher throughput should help fixed-cost recovery, while price, cost and schedule exposure remains the central margin test.

What needs to happen after the ramp?

The longer-term test is whether Alaska can sustain production growth beyond the initial contributions from Nuna and Pikka while attracting sufficient capital for additional North Slope development. The two current projects will test whether the established infrastructure base can support a larger production level.

Beyond those tests, the EIA outlook leaves open how many subsequent projects will contribute and when.

The watch item is whether Pikka reaches its 80,000-bpd winter peak and whether Alaska can use the higher output to attract capital while preserving margins that remain sensitive to crude prices, operating costs and transport expenses.