Inpex Lifts Net Profit Forecast 7.8% to Record ¥550 Billion on Ichthys Strength

Inpex raised its 2026 net profit forecast by 7.8% to a record ¥550 billion ($3.4 billion), citing higher oil and gas prices and robust output at the Ichthys liquefied natural gas project off northwest Australia. Japan's largest oil and gas explorer disclosed the revision on Thursday. The new number sits ¥40 billion above the ¥510 billion estimate the company issued in August.

The upgrade rests on two legs: price and volume. Net profit for January–September rose 38.9% year on year to ¥407.6 billion, the company reported, as stronger energy prices and firmer Ichthys production absorbed a dip in Abu Dhabi crude sales during the Iran war. One long caveat shadows every record here: the forecast assumes prices hold, and Inpex's own numbers show how quickly geopolitical shocks move its crude books. The yen conversion basis is $1 = ¥159.71.

How much more LNG is Ichthys shipping?

Ichthys LNG shipments in 2026 should exceed the August forecast by several cargoes, Senior Executive Vice President Toshiaki Takimoto told reporters. That's an operational claim, not a contract disclosure — cargo counts, volumes and buyer allocations weren't itemized, and "several" is doing the heavy lifting until Inpex publishes firm tonnage.

Ichthys (Inpex's flagship LNG venture in the Browse Basin, where gas is piped 890 km to an onshore plant near Darwin) has been the company's growth engine for years. But the calendar now carries a known constraint: Train 1 shuts for scheduled maintenance for roughly six weeks from mid-July 2027. The takeaway: near-term upside is real, and a dated, planned outage caps how much of it carries into the second half of 2027.

What happened to Abu Dhabi volumes?

Inpex expects its annual sales of Abu Dhabi crude to fall by 50% this year versus 2025. That is a sharp contraction in one of the company's core equity-crude positions, and it landed inside the reporting period covered by the profit rise — meaning LNG and pricing did more work than the headline suggests.

Takimoto framed the Middle East strategy as unchanged. "The region offers the cheapest and most abundant crude," he said, in comments reported by Reuters. In plain terms: the barrels dropped, but Inpex isn't walking away from the concession structure.

Where does Inpex invest next?

Beyond the Gulf, Inpex said it will consider investing in new supply sources in other regions to secure stable supplies for Japan. The company may also weigh supporting an expansion of the UAE's crude oil pipeline — but only, Takimoto said, if asked, and only if Inpex can ensure smooth shipments of crude from its equity interests.

Note the conditionality. Nothing here is sanctioned, budgeted or FID'd (final investment decision, the board-level commit to build). These are optionality statements from a senior executive fielding questions, and they come without capex figures, timelines or target basins. Diversification talk is cheap; watch for acreage, farm-ins or LNG offtake signings before pricing any of it in.

What to watch

Three items set the next read on this story:

• Ichthys cargo accounting — whether "several cargoes" of upside converts into hard tonnage when Inpex reports full-year results.
• Abu Dhabi trajectory — whether the 50% sales decline is a one-year war effect or the start of a multi-year slide.
• Train 1 turnaround — the six-week, mid-July 2027 shutdown that will test how tight Ichthys production actually runs against contract commitments.

For now, the record forecast is earned: prices helped, Ichthys delivered, and Abu Dhabi's shortfall got absorbed. The watch item is whether volume, not price, carries the next revision.