Iraq's October Exports Top 3.4 Million Bpd, Nearing Pre-War Level

Iraq exported more than 3.4 million bpd in October to date, Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair told the state news agency INA on Monday. The figure sits near the 3.3-3.5 million bpd Iraq shipped before the war with Iran disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The October number marks a jump of roughly 750,000 bpd from September. Ministry data put September exports at 2.65 million bpd. Of that September volume, 250,000 bpd moved through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to the Ceyhan terminal on the Mediterranean.

How big is the increase?

The month-on-month gain is the largest single operational shift in Iraq's export program since the pre-war baseline. September's 2.65 million bpd has given way to an October average above 3.4 million bpd, according to ministry figures relayed by Khudair. That is a 28% rise in one month.

The comparison point matters. Before the war with Iran choked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint handling about a fifth of global seaborne oil — Iraq shipped between 3.3 million and 3.5 million bpd. October's average now sits inside or above that band for the first time since the disruption began.

What does the pipeline share tell us?

The Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which runs from northern fields to the Ceyhan export terminal, carried 250,000 bpd in September. That route bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely, discharging into the Mediterranean. Its throughput gives Baghdad a hedge against Gulf chokepoint risk, and the ministry's decision to cite the Ceyhan figure alongside the headline number signals the route's renewed weight in the export mix.

The source dispatch cuts off mid-sentence at Khudair's next point: "Khudair said Iraq is now exporting through…" The remainder of his statement on additional export routes was not available at press time.

Where does this leave the pre-war benchmark?

Khudair framed the October figure against the 3.3-3.5 million bpd pre-war range. At 3.4 million bpd plus, Iraq has effectively recovered its baseline export capacity. The recovery comes despite the Hormuz disruption that removed the Gulf loading option for a period and forced Iraq to lean on overland and alternate maritime routes.

Three figures anchor the month:

• 3.4 million bpd-plus: October export average to date, per the oil ministry.
• 2.65 million bpd: September export average, the prior baseline.
• 250,000 bpd: September throughput on the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan.

What is the watch item?

The minister's incomplete statement on current export routes is the open question. Whether Baghdad can sustain above 3.4 million bpd through November depends on the route mix Khudair began to describe. Traders will watch the next monthly ministry release for confirmation that the October rate holds rather than reflects a one-month peak.

In plain terms: Iraq is back at its pre-war export level, and the next data point will show whether it stays there.