OPEC+ is likely to leave its November production targets unchanged when seven core members meet online on Sunday, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. No final decision has been made, the sources said.

The seven producers on the call — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — convene as Gulf members rebuild export volumes disrupted for months by the Iran war. Most are still pumping well below their output targets. OPEC and Russian authorities did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The group has raised output targets for most of the year but held them steady for October. In September, it completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut first agreed in 2023.

The production gap

OPEC data show the seven core producers pumped 25.0 million bpd in August, up 630,000 bpd from July. That figure still sits roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war levels recorded in February. War-related disruption has kept Gulf producers under quota even as they lift exports.

Reuters reported in July that OPEC+ was likely to make no target changes during the fourth quarter as attention shifts to 2027 quota negotiations.

One more layer of cuts remains in place: about 2 million bpd of reductions covering most members through the end of 2026.

2027 baselines and the D&M report

Before setting 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas and shape plans to unwind the remaining cuts, the group must finalise a review of members' production capacity, sources said. U.S. consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton is expected to submit its capacity report soon.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a separate OPEC+ ministerial group that does not set policy, also meets on Sunday to review the market.

The watch item: Sunday's meeting outcome and the timing of the DeGolyer and MacNaughton capacity report, which will frame the 2027 baseline talks.