OPEC+ will keep its November oil output targets unchanged, the group confirmed at its monthly ministerial review, extending the gradual unwind pause that has run since the spring.

The decision leaves the group's production architecture intact. Eight participating members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — continue to hold roughly 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts in place. The next phase of restoration ministers had signalled in late 2024 remains deferred.

What is OPEC+ holding back?

The 2.2 mb/d voluntary tranche sits on top of the group's headline quota cut of roughly 1.65 million bpd, agreed in late 2022 and running through the end of 2026. Together the two tranches account for the bulk of OPEC+ spare capacity, most of which sits with Saudi Arabia.

The voluntary tranche dates to April 2023, when the eight participants announced surprise cuts of about 1.2 million bpd that were deepened later that year to roughly 2.2 million bpd. The cuts have been extended multiple times and were the lever ministers pulled when prices weakened in late 2024.

The 1.65 million bpd headline cut, by contrast, was the group's response to the post-pandemic demand recovery and the 2020 price collapse. It is shared across the full OPEC+ membership rather than concentrated among the eight voluntary-cut holders. For members outside the voluntary eight — including Nigeria, Angola, Iran and Venezuela — output is governed by the wider ceiling, with over-production a separate and longstanding source of friction at JMMC meetings.

Why has the gradual unwind stalled?

The framework for returning those barrels was agreed at the group's December 2024 meeting, when OPEC+ announced a phased unwind running through late 2026. The schedule effectively paused in the spring of 2025, when ministers held quotas flat to absorb rising non-OPEC supply and softer Chinese demand.

Brent traded near $66 a barrel in the days around the decision, in the corridor that prevailed when the group first paused the unwind. OPEC+ has framed the voluntary hold as a precautionary measure, citing expectations of a well-supplied market into year-end and the seasonal first-quarter surplus overhang.

Non-OPEC supply growth has shaped the calculus. US shale output has plateaued after years of growth, but Brazil, Guyana and Canadian heavy-oil projects have continued to add barrels. Combined non-OPEC growth of roughly 1.4 to 1.5 million bpd this year has offset most of the demand expansion, leaving the call on OPEC crude little changed.

The IEA and OPEC's monthly market reports have diverged on the 2025 demand growth figure, with the IEA near 700,000 bpd and OPEC closer to 1.3 million bpd — the widest gap in years. The split reflects different views on Chinese petrochemical feedstock demand and aviation fuel ramp.

Compliance on the voluntary hold has been mixed. Kuwait and Kazakhstan have lagged in past quarters, a recurring friction the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee has flagged. Riyadh has run production close to the assigned ceiling, absorbing the bulk of the burden.

What comes next?

Demand has held up better than feared in the third quarter, with US gasoline consumption and Indian distillate intake both resilient. Chinese refining margins remain under pressure from new capacity additions, however, and the IEA's monthly oil market report has flagged downside risk into 2026.

OPEC+ next convenes in early December for the December and January quota review. Markets will look for any signal on whether the gradual phased unwind of the 2.2 million bpd tranche resumes, or whether the pause extends into the new year. The JMMC's next compliance update is due ahead of that meeting.