Russia's Seaborne Crude Exports Slip to 3.13 Million bpd

By Daniel Okafor

Russia's seaborne crude exports averaged 3.59 million barrels per day across the four weeks through October 18, a decline of 110,000 bpd against the prior period, after loadings halted at the Baltic port of Primorsk for several days. Weekly flows fell by an even steeper margin.

Tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show the weekly reading dropped 390,000 bpd to 3.13 million bpd, the lowest weekly print since March. Thirty-one tankers lifted 21.91 million barrels. The previous week saw thirty-four vessels carry 24.63 million barrels.

What halted the Baltic loadings?

Primorsk sits on the Gulf of Finland and handles Urals blend for export through the Baltic Sea. The terminal paused loadings for several days during the reference period, removing measurable barrels from the national tally.

The second Baltic terminal is Ust-Luga, which loads Urals and sour grades shipped down the Volga. Together the two ports account for roughly two million bpd of crude liftings in normal weeks. Knock out one for a few days and the four-week average bends visibly.

The data do not specify the cause. Maintenance, weather, or terminal scheduling decisions would be the customary explanations. None has been publicly confirmed.

The bottom line: Baltic terminals move the Russian export headline number, and a multi-day Primorsk stoppage moves it quickly.

How low did the four-week average reach?

The 3.59 million bpd rolling figure represents the lowest such four-week average in roughly a year, according to the Bloomberg compilation. The 110,000 bpd drop compresses the Primorsk pause and softer flows elsewhere into one tidy number traders will repeat for the rest of the week.

A weekly reading carries more noise than a four-week smooth, which is why analysts default to the rolling view. The 3.13 million bpd weekly print is the headline. The 3.59 million bpd four-week average is the verdict on the trend, year on year, and confirms Russian seaborne barrels remain plentiful, just not as plentiful as a month ago.

Translating for a general reader: 21.91 million barrels would fill roughly 3,600 Olympic swimming pools. A useful image for anyone who has spent a decade counting tankers instead of swimming lanes.

Which terminals feed the remaining cargoes?

Novorossiysk on the Black Sea handles Mediterranean and Turkish liftings. Kozmino in the Far East loads ESPO blend for shipments to China, India, and other Asian buyers. De-Kastri contributes smaller volumes from the Sea of Japan.

The Primorsk outage does not directly affect eastern flows. Kozmino throughput has held steady through 2025 as Moscow redirects cargoes to buyers outside the G7 price cap regime. Any further Baltic disruption would therefore weight the export mix further toward Asia, a quiet but real shift in the trading pattern.

The domestic side matters too. Russian refineries absorbed more crude this year as new units came online in eastern Siberia. The split between domestic runs and exports sets the volume available for the seaborne trackers to count.

What are traders watching next?

The next Bloomberg four-week print covers the period through late October and will indicate whether Baltic loadings have fully recovered. A reading below 3.5 million bpd would mark a multi-quarter low for the seaborne stream.

Russia continues to hold voluntary cuts of 471,000 bpd below its OPEC+ baseline, with periodic revisions discussed at ministerial meetings. The compliance arithmetic sits behind every export number that tracker services publish.

The watch item: the Primorsk restart date and the next weekly Bloomberg print, due in roughly seven days.