Venezuelan crude production could reach 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030 if capital deployment, rig availability and oilfield services scale accordingly, Rystad Energy models show. The forecast anchors the broadest pool of international operators and capital the country's upstream sector has attracted in decades.

"The roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela is genuinely different from anything we have seen in years. Established operators are taking on larger roles and new names are entering the market," said Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas, Rystad Energy. "A wider group of operators should help mobilise the capital and activity needed to rebuild rigs, oilfield services and infrastructure across the entire supply chain."

Who is doing what on the ground?

Sanitored activity now spans the Orinoco heavy oil belt and Lake Maracaibo:

• Chevron has added Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A to its portfolio and outlined more than $7 billion of investment over five years.
• Eni holds exclusive operatorship of Junin 5 under a new 25-year production participation contract.
• Repsol has regained operational control at Petroquiriquire; Shell has re-entered through redevelopment agreements for Carito and Pirital.
• New entrants include GeoPark, Hunt Oil, Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy and North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), which has expanded through a framework covering 17 producing and development areas.

Rystad distinguishes these defined programs from larger ambitions. NABEP's $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed near-term capital, and the company has not disclosed a detailed financing structure. Rystad favours investment programs tied to established operators and defined assets over those requiring substantial external capital.

What limits the ramp-up?

The binding constraint is operational. Baker Hughes counted just two active drilling rigs in Venezuela as of August, against a Hydrocarbons Ministry target of roughly 93 rigs by 2028. SLB has around 15 rigs positioned in the country that could potentially be reactivated within a year.

"Rystad estimates activity would need to reach around 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support the modeled production pathway," Bansal said. She noted that a number of newly identified opportunities were previously associated with Russian and Chinese operators, and further restructuring of legacy positions remains possible as the new contractual framework develops.

Where do the barrels come from?

Near-term growth is brownfield-led: field rehabilitation, well reactivations and infill drilling across NABEP's Lake Maracaibo portfolio, Chevron's Petropiar and Petroboscan assets, Eni's Corocoro field and GeoPark's Bare block.

NABEP's three production participation contracts show what renewed investment delivers. Combined production from the former Russian-linked Petrozamora operations around Lake Maracaibo appears to have risen from roughly 90,000 bpd at end-2024 to nearly 200,000 bpd today.

Greenfield-led growth follows in the 2030s, anchored by Chevron's Ayacucho 8, Eni's Junin 5 and NABEP's newly awarded Orinoco blocks. In Rystad's modeled upside scenario, that combination could lift production to about 2.58 million bpd by 2035, with incremental volumes almost evenly split between brownfield and greenfield additions.

What else is in the pipeline?

Appraisal-stage and preliminary interest continues to broaden:

• Continental Resources has signed a preliminary agreement for Ayacucho 2.
• ExxonMobil is in discussions over a potential return.
• TotalEnergies has signed an MoU with PDVSA covering new hydrocarbon opportunities.
• A Turkish-linked investor is advancing investment in the producing CEMA field.
• Halliburton has signed agreements with Eneva and WESCA to pursue oil and gas development opportunities.

These remain commitments of intent rather than sanctioned capital. The pace, Rystad cautions, stays conditional on actual capital deployment and Venezuela's ability to rebuild drilling, services and infrastructure capacity. Watch the rig count: movement from two active rigs toward the 50-rig 2028 requirement is the clearest signal of whether the modeled production pathway holds.