Venezuela's crude production could reach 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030, according to Rystad Energy's modeling — a forecast that hinges on capital deployment, rig availability and oilfield services capacity scaling in line with project requirements.

The consultancy's projection, published in its latest assessment of the Venezuelan upstream, reflects what it describes as the broadest pool of international operators and capital targeting the country's oil sector in decades. Established majors are expanding their footprints, while new operators are entering under revised contractual frameworks, Rystad said.

The numbers mark a significant recovery trajectory for a national industry that has spent most of the past decade in steep decline. Reaching 1.8 million bpd by 2030 would more than triple current output levels, and the 2028 milestone of 1.6 million bpd implies a rapid acceleration in drilling and workover activity across Venezuela's core producing assets — notably the Orinoco Belt heavy-oil belts and the Lake Maracaibo legacy fields.

The Conditions Attached

Rystad's forecast is explicitly conditional. The 1.6-1.8 million bpd range assumes that operators can secure the capital, rigs and oilfield services needed to restore shut-in capacity and drill new wells at scale. Any shortfall in those inputs — rig counts, fracturing fleets, workover units, or financing — would push the recovery curve lower and to the right.

The contractual backdrop is the other variable. Rystad points to revised contractual frameworks as the mechanism enabling new entrants, and the roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela — which the consultancy says is growing — will need those terms to hold through the investment cycle for the capital to keep flowing.

What to Watch

The watch items are operational, not rhetorical. Quarterly rig count and workover activity in Venezuela will be the first hard indicator of whether the recovery is tracking Rystad's curve. The pace at which new operators convert entry agreements into drilling programs will test the revised contractual frameworks in practice. And each incremental barrels-per-day figure reported by state company PDVASA and secondary trackers against the 1.6 million bpd 2028 waypoint will show whether the industry is closing the gap or stalling.

Rystad's numbers are a forecast, not a sanctioned project slate — the recovery scenario remains appraisal-stage modeling until operators commit and deploy the capital, rigs and services the consultancy identifies as the binding constraints.