By Priya Raman

West Texas Intermediate gained $1.93, or 2.10%, to $93.78/bbl on Monday morning — its highest level in nearly two weeks. Brent crude added $2.09, or 2.00%, to reach $106.80/bbl, according to Oilprice.com data.

The driver is supply risk, not fundamentals. Fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia and on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz (the chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of seaborne crude) pushed Middle East disruption premiums back to the center of the market.

Those gains came despite two developments that should, on paper, pull prices lower: President Donald Trump's announcement of additional Russian diesel supplies and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. The market shrugged at both. That tells you where traders think the real risk sits.

What moved the benchmarks?

• WTI: $93.78/bbl, up $1.93 (+2.10%), Monday morning.
• Brent: $106.80/bbl, up $2.09 (+2.00%), same session.
• Catalyst: attacks on Saudi territory and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Offsetting news: added Russian diesel supply and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, per Trump's announcements.

Both benchmarks hit near-two-week highs. Prices at these levels reflect a geopolitical premium layered over a market that OPEC itself sees rebounding on the demand side, so any de-escalation around Hormuz could strip that premium out fast.

Why did supply-risk news beat supply news?

Simple arithmetic of exposure. Additional Russian diesel barrels affect the middle of the barrel (refined product supply, relevant to crack spreads and European import coverage), while a threat to Hormuz touches crude at the source for every buyer of Gulf grades. Traders price the tail risk, not the announced volume.

The ceasefire headline is softer still. Energy ceasefires between Russia and Ukraine have a short shelf life, and diesel flows from Russia depend on sanctions enforcement and logistics as much as on declarations from Washington. The source text cuts off before quantifying the diesel volumes, so treat the supply addition as unverified until cargo data shows it. No volume figure was given. No timeline either.

Note what the rally does confirm: the market currently discounts headline supply additions faster than it discounts headline attacks. That asymmetry is the trade.

What's the watch item?

Watch the Strait of Hormuz itself — shipping traffic, insurance rates, and any further incidents near the waterway. Watch whether the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire holds past the first violation. And watch OPEC's read on the demand rebound the headline references; the producer group's demand view, not White House announcements, sets the production policy that governs physical barrels.

Monday's move is a risk premium, not a re-rating. Premiums unwind when the incident feed goes quiet.