West Texas Intermediate swung $12/bbl between Monday's $101.10 intraday high and Wednesday's $88.70 low, ending the week lower as Brent held essentially flat and the WTI-Brent spread blew out to $11.70.

Front-month October WTI traded the widest range of the week on Monday before retreating through midweek. October Brent posted its own $10.90/bbl swing, hitting $108.25 on Thursday and bottoming at $97.35 on Tuesday. Analysts attribute the persistent WTI discount to a possible US diesel export ban that would make domestic crude less attractive to foreign buyers.

What is driving the WTI-Brent disconnect?

Saudi Arabia confirmed flows have resumed on the East-West pipeline, which terminates at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Houthi rebels, meanwhile, expanded strikes against Saudi infrastructure, including attacks near Riyadh and at Aramco's Yanbu export terminal — the pipeline's loading point. Saudi air defenses intercepted several missiles.

France pledged aid to help protect the port and refinery complex. Oman and Saudi Arabia have both appealed to Washington to maintain economic and military pressure on Iran regardless of Tehran's diplomatic overtures.

Qatar is proposing that talks resume as soon as next week in Oman. Reports indicate Iran would consider opening the Strait of Hormuz if Washington rolled back its naval blockade, a position at odds with recent declarations from Tehran that the strait would remain closed until both President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu leave office.

How much oil is still moving out of Yanbu?

Roughly 5.5 million b/d has cleared Yanbu and the UAE's Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman, well below June's 7.8 million b/d. Ship-to-ship transfers used to work around the disruptions have driven up costs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil inventories have drawn 507 million bbl since the start of the Iran war, equivalent to about 2.8 million b/d. August alone contributed an estimated 95 million bbl of declines.

What did the EIA's weekly report show?

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed commercial crude oil inventories rising week-on-week while domestic production held at 13.9 million b/d. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell another 400,000 bbl to 284.5 million bbl, the lowest level since 1982.

Macroeconomic signals were mixed. Durable goods orders for August matched July's reading, beating expectations of a 0.3% decline. Initial unemployment claims came in at 197,000 against a 201,000 forecast. All three major US equity indexes closed the week positive on lower crude prices, while a stronger dollar added its own downward pressure. Gold finished lower.

Where do the technicals stand?

November WTI futures took over as the prompt contract but at a discount to October's close. The technical slide that began last week extended further, with prices retreating below the 8- and 13-day moving averages and settling near the 20-day MA. Volume ran near recent averages at around 300,000 contracts.

The Relative Strength Index sits at 53, neutral, with near-term support at $91.50 (Friday's low) and resistance at $95.20 (8-day MA).

How is natural gas responding to fall weather?

October NYMEX Henry Hub futures gained on the week, lifted by pockets of extended summer heat, a well-below-average storage injection, and a one-day pipeline outage that spooked traders. The contract hit $3.32/MMbtu on Thursday and bottomed at $2.82 on Monday.

The EIA's storage report showed a 53 bcf injection, matching consensus and running well below the 5-year average of 95 bcf. Total storage stands at 3.351 tcf, 4.2% below last year and 2.9% above the five-year norm.

Demand this week ran around 98 bcfd with a sharp drop in power-generation burn, while supply held near 109 bcfd. LNG exports reached 18.5 bcf and pipeline deliveries to Mexico came in at 7.7 bcfd.

Across the Atlantic, benchmark prices converged:

• UK NBP: $24.25/MMbtu
• Dutch TTF: $25.10
• Asia JKM: $25.75

European and Asian buyers are competing for the same cargoes.

What does the gas chart show?

October futures briefly punched through the upper Bollinger Band before pulling back. Price remains well above the 8-, 13-, and 20-day moving averages — a configuration suggesting a potential reversal.

Volume ran light at about 75,000 contracts as traders rolled into November ahead of October's Monday expiry. The RSI sits at 61, near overbought. Support is pegged at $3.00 with resistance at $3.16.

What should traders watch next?

Diplomatic signals around the Iran war remain contradictory, and markets will look to whether the proposed Oman summit convenes next week. France's defense commitments to Yanbu will be tested against continued Houthi strikes, and any regional coalition push to retake Bab El-Mandeb remains uncertain.

Stateside, the diesel-export question — ban or no ban — will continue to steer the WTI-Brent differential. With five weeks left in the official storage injection season, gas markets need roughly 130 bcf per week to reach 4.0 tcf by November 1.