Brent crude for November delivery gained $0.19, or 0.2%, to settle at $105.47 a barrel (bbl) by 08:44 GMT on 29 September, extending a second consecutive session of gains as traders weighed Middle Eastern supply risk against rising exports from the Gulf.

The more-active December contract rose $0.11 to $97.94/bbl. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $92.82/bbl, up $0.22 on the day.

What is driving the second-day move?

November Brent and WTI are on track to close September up roughly 17% and 8% respectively, reflecting a sustained risk premium tied to the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran and Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption.

Sanctioned, in-progress conflict management — not fresh speculation — is keeping the bid in place. U.S. and Iranian officials said talks aimed at de-escalation are ongoing.

How are Middle Eastern crude flows tracking?

The geopolitical backdrop sits against a physical export rebound. Kpler preliminary data pegged crude exports from key Middle Eastern producers at 12.8 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in September, the highest monthly level since February, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates leading the increase.

A stronger seaborne slate, however, has done little to quiet the prompt-month premium tied to chokepoint exposure.

What is the LNG side of the story?

The conflict has spilled into liquefied natural gas. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notifications covering cargoes bound for Italy's Edison and buyers in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Edison stated it will not receive LNG cargoes until at least the beginning of December, in a continuation of a notification first issued in April.

ICIS data quantifies the damage on the Qatari side:

• Qatar's LNG exports fell 96% year-on-year by end-August.
• Only 18 LNG shipments had cleared Qatari terminals by the end of August, versus 509 in the same period last year.
• Force majeure now explicitly extends into the December loading window for Edison.

Is Washington moving on diesel policy?

In Washington, U.S. officials are weighing regulatory changes that would permit broader sales of red-dyed diesel, a step that would let some buyers sidestep federal fuel tax and help lower domestic pump prices, according to people familiar with the discussions. The proposal has emerged as a leading alternative to an outright ban on diesel exports.

How is China reweighting its crude slate?

Separate analyst commentary underscores where lost Gulf barrels are being replaced. A TS Lombard note from Alexandros Xenofontos, Davide Oneglia, Rory Green and others found that China acted as a key buffer during the early phase of the conflict as electrification, inventories and demand destruction cut its seaborne crude imports, helping absorb displaced Gulf barrels.

Infrastructure-led buying is now pulling Chinese refiners toward West African, Canadian and Latin American supply, tightening physical markets more broadly. Dated Brent trades several dollars above front-month futures again, with physical North Sea crude approaching $110/bbl.

The reversal in prompt physical differentials suggests the Gulf export rebound is being absorbed rather than stockpiled — a signal traders will watch into the October OPEC+ meeting and U.S. diesel policy decision.