Brent Down 12.88% in 20 Days: Traders Eye 89.15 Floor and 106.31 Lid

Brent crude has dropped 12.88% in 20 trading days, falling from a 118.00 high on 30 October to an 89.15 low on 10 November. That is a loss of just under 29 dollars a barrel in under three weeks. For a refinery buying cargoes on the way down, the arithmetic is friendly. For producers, it is not.

The analysis comes from TradingView contributor Forexupgo, whose chart work frames the sell-off in precise steps. The verdict is short: price sits well below both key moving averages, and the next move depends on one number.

How the decline unfolded

The route down was not a single gap. It was a staircase, and each step is worth recording.

• 30 October: Brent printed 118.00, the top of its 15-day range.
• 2 November: opened at 111.84, closed at 104.77. Forexupgo calls this "the first big step down."
• 4 November: low of 93.40, close at 94.62.
• 10 November: low of 89.15, close at 91.49.
• 12 November: the session opened at 92.40, up 0.99% on the day. Early, and still movable.

From 118.00 to 89.15 is a 24.4% peak-to-trough drawdown. The close on 10 November tells a slightly calmer story at 91.49, but calm is relative here.

What do the moving averages say?

The technical picture is the part producers and refiners should read twice. Brent trades 13.08% below its 21-day moving average at 106.31 and 11.36% below its 50-day moving average at 104.24.

The two averages disagree. The 21-day slopes down. The 50-day still slopes up. All of the last five closes sit below the 50-day line, which means the longer trend has not yet bent lower but the shorter one clearly has. Bounces have so far failed at the 98.42 high of 9 November and the 99.25 high of 5 November. Two rejections in four days at roughly the same shelf is a message, and the message is that sellers wait near 98 to 99 dollars.

The takeaway in plain words: Brent is oversold against its own averages, but oversold and turning are two different things.

Which levels matter now?

Forexupgo lays out three scenarios, and each carries a concrete reference point.

• 89.15 holds: Brent stays rangebound between that floor and 98.42. Sideways, not settled.
• Close below 89.15: the 85.48 low from 26 August becomes the next chart reference. That would extend the drawdown from the October high to about 27.5%.
• Reclaim of 98.42: the 50-day average at 104.24 and the 21-day average at 106.31 come back into view as the lid.

The analyst's own framing question is blunt: "Does 89.15 hold, or does 98.42 reject the next bounce?" That is the whole trade in one sentence.

What about the calendar?

Here the chart offers little comfort or warning. Forexupgo reports no calendar items in the data for the next 48 hours. The author notes that oil has moved in big daily ranges lately, so a rules-based plan sizes positions for that volatility rather than assuming quiet.

The piece closes with a standard disclaimer: not financial advice. Fair enough. Price commentary of this kind is analysis to attribute, not fact, and the attribution is to a named TradingView contributor working from chart levels rather than from OPEC communiqués or inventory data.

For the physical market, a 12.88% slide in 20 days feeds straight into crude procurement economics. A refinery lifting Brent-linked cargoes in early November paid materially less than one lifting in late October. The watch item is 89.15: hold it, and the market ranges; lose it, and 85.48 from late August is the next stop on the chart.