Brent's 7.74% Five-Session Drop Leaves 93.40 Floor in Focus

By Olivia Hart

Brent crude futures traded at 96.66, down 1.69% on the daily chart and 7.74% over five sessions, while the current candle (the unfinished session price bar) was still moving. The loss over 20 sessions reached 9.37%.

Forexupgo's TradingView analysis covered Brent Crude Futures, shown as ICEEUR_DLY:BRN1!, and centered on the retreat from the 118.00 high reached on 30 October. The chart had recorded a 93.40 low on 4 November, followed by closes of 98.29 and 98.32 over the next two sessions. The latest session high of 98.42 stalled just below the recovery area.

The chart showed a sharp fall followed by a partial recovery, not a completed trend reversal.

How far has Brent fallen?

Forexupgo recorded a 118.00 peak on 30 October and a rapid decline to a 93.40 low on 4 November, leaving Brent close to the bottom of its 15-day range. Brent's latest price of 96.66 remained near that lower zone. The five-session loss was 7.74%, while the 20-session loss reached 9.37%.

Forexupgo wrote: “Oil moves fast, so the levels matter more than the story.” The chart therefore placed more weight on defined reference levels than on any explanation for the decline.

The numbers defined the move, while the source focused on three chart thresholds.

What do the moving averages show?

At 96.66, Brent sat below both averages tracked in the chart. The 21-day moving average (MA), which averages recent closes over 21 sessions, stood at 107.86 and continued to slope downward.

The 50-day MA was 104.35 and continued to slope upward. Forexupgo interpreted those opposing directions as evidence that the longer trend had not turned. All five of the most recent closes remained below the 50-day MA.

Price also occupied the lower portion of a 15-day box, meaning the chart's recent range between 93.40 and 118.00, with both moving averages remaining above the market.

Both tracked averages remained above price, leaving the longer trend unrepaired in the source's reading.

Which levels define the next move?

Forexupgo identified three levels for the next test, each tied to a prior price or chart reference, and ranked the downside floor before the bounce and longer-term recovery thresholds.

• 93.40: The 4 November low and immediate downside floor. A daily close, the session's final price, below it would create a fresh low for the current move.
• 98.32: Friday's close and the threshold for the bounce. Daily closes back above it would show that the recovery was holding.
• 104.35: The 50-day MA and the next reference if the bounce extended.

The latest session high reached 98.42, just above the 98.32 reference, but stalled nearby. That reading did not yet meet the source's daily-close test. The first resolution would come from either a reclaim of 98.32 or a break of 93.40.

The market had a defined downside break, a bounce test and a subsequent trend test.

What can move Brent over the next 48 hours?

The chart calendar contained nothing scheduled for the next 48 hours. Forexupgo said headlines could move oil during that period. The source offered no dated event and no forecast for the next 48-hour price direction.

Without a scheduled event in the source, the three price levels carried more analytical weight than any forecast of direction, because a headline-driven move could cross an intraday level without confirming the daily-close signal.

With no scheduled event identified, headline risk remained the main near-term variable.

How should traders read the setup?

Forexupgo said: “A rules-based approach defines the level before the move, not after.” The method sets a reference before price action and then tests whether the market closes beyond it, turning a predefined threshold into the decision point.

In this case, the first decision is whether Brent reclaims 98.32 or breaks 93.40. A move toward 104.35 becomes the next test only if the bounce persists. The 98.42 session high remained below the 21-day MA at 107.86 and the next trend reference at 104.35.

The 93.40 test requires a daily close below the low. The 98.32 test requires daily closes back above Friday's close. Because the current candle was still moving, its unfinished 96.66 reading did not settle either question.

The source closed with the warning: “Not financial advice.”

The watch item is the next daily close against 93.40 or 98.32; 104.35 becomes relevant only if the bounce holds.