Oil Falls as Brent Reaches $90.42 and WTI Drops Below $85

By Olivia Hart

Brent cash crude fell to $90.42 per barrel on November 10, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $84.68, according to a TradingView analysis by Fresh-Forexcast2004. The post cited FreshForex analysts and tied the renewed decline to a lower supply-disruption risk premium, the extra price buyers assign to possible export interruptions.

How far did the selloff go?

Brent futures had lost 5.85% in the previous session, while WTI had lost 4.38%, the analysis reported. Selling resumed after U.S. President Donald Trump said strikes on Iran were unlikely while negotiations continued.

After meeting Qatar's prime minister on November 9, Trump said: "I currently see no need to resume strikes."

All four price targets in the November 3 forecast were reached during the prior week. Brent passed $103 and $100, while WTI passed $95 and $94. Both benchmarks then surrendered another $9 or more per barrel from those levels. The four thresholds had been set only one week earlier.

The sequence spanning Qatar's meeting and following session left Brent below $100 and WTI below $85, extending the retreat that followed the previous week's benchmark highs.

The immediate move was broad, sharp and tied to reduced expectations of renewed conflict.

Why did the market keep selling?

The TradingView post attributed the renewed decline to falling expectations of disruption to oil exports. Initial reports of Iran's contacts with Qatari mediators eased concern over supply interruptions, the analysis said.

Washington then publicly signaled its readiness to refrain from new strikes. The source treated that signal as a reduction in escalation risk. The analysis concluded that buyers consequently paid less for the risk premium.

Iraq supplied a separate supply-security signal after its foreign minister announced an agreement with the United States to transport Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz along the coast of Oman. If tankers could use the route regularly, the analysis said, part of the supply would become more predictable.

Diplomatic progress and a practical export route weakened the immediate case for a disruption premium.

What could bring buyers back?

Trump said the United States would "maintain the maritime blockade of Iran," the source reported. Despite that position, reports continued of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz area. The two developments created opposing signals for crude supply and shipping risk.

The key test, according to the analysis, is whether tankers can pass through the strait regularly. The source said new disruptions could quickly restore part of the risk premium to crude prices. In the analysis, regular flows would keep that premium subdued, while further attacks could make buyers reassess export continuity.

Regular passage would support the expectation of weaker prices, whereas another vessel attack could revive disruption concerns and prompt buyers to resume paying a premium against uncertain exports.

Watch regular tanker passage through Hormuz; it carries the clearest near-term signal for either direction.

Where could the decline stop?

FreshForex analysts said the retreat could continue if negotiations with Iran progress and flights of Iraqi tankers confirm that the U.S.-Iraq agreement is working. Under that scenario, buyers would have fewer reasons to pay a premium for supply-disruption risk, the analysts said.

FreshForex projected Brent could fall to $87–88 per barrel by the end of the week. WTI could reach $82–83 under the same conditions. Both ranges sat below the November 10 benchmark quotations. These are conditional market projections, not confirmed price levels.

The source report gave no tanker schedule, cargo volume or implementation date for the Iraqi arrangement. It therefore made physical tanker movements the practical test for the agreement.

That combination would make export flows more predictable and remove much of the rationale for buyers to pay above prevailing market levels for immediate physical barrels.

Diplomatic progress would matter most if tanker movements confirm it. Watch regular tanker passage through Hormuz and Iraqi flights; both will test whether the downside case gains traction.