EIA Cuts 2027 Henry Hub Forecast as Appalachian DUCs Fall Below 500

By Olivia Hart

What does EIA's November forecast show?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.87 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) from November through March, 16% below its prior forecast.

The agency released its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. Its 2027 Henry Hub forecast now stands at $2.88 per MMBtu, $0.28 lower than the previous projection.

Both revisions point in the same direction. EIA now carries a lower price expectation across the near-term and 2027 periods. Neither figure records prices already paid. They remain forward-looking estimates.

The $0.28 change specifically measures the revision to the previous monthly view. It does not represent a year-on-year decline. The November outlook therefore combines a lower five-month average with a reduced 2027 benchmark.

Takeaway: EIA expects lower Henry Hub prices through March and a lower 2027 benchmark.

Why did the near-term forecast fall?

The accompanying market analysis is explicit: "A warm start to November means less gas burned for heat, more gas left in storage, and lower prices."

That sequence links weather, heating demand, storage and price. It is the analysis behind the lower near-term forecast, rather than a reported transaction or an observed market settlement.

The cited item provides no temperature total, storage level or injection figure. The revised average is the stated numerical result. The weather-and-storage explanation is the stated mechanism.

The forecast spans five months, from November through March. A single warm start does not establish the average temperature for that entire period. Nor does the forecast establish the daily price path.

The published average and the identified drivers provide the available evidence. A directional market explanation does not supply an exact monthly or daily outcome.

Takeaway: Warm weather and reduced heating demand underpin the lower near-term price view.

What does the Appalachian well count show?

Appalachian drillers have worked their stockpile of drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs) below 500. This marks the first sub-500 count since 2022.

The report describes continued work on the existing inventory. The reported measure is a stock of uncompleted wells, not a count of active drilling rigs or monthly well starts.

No operator breakdown, state allocation or completion schedule appears in the cited item. The figure therefore supports one clear conclusion: the regional DUC backlog has moved below 500 wells.

The DUC count does not measure gas production. It also does not show how quickly those wells can reach production. Those require separate completion and output data not provided here.

Read alongside the price forecast, the figures describe two separate trends: lower expected prices and a shrinking Appalachian backlog. The cited item does not establish a direct causal link between them.

Takeaway: Appalachian drillers are drawing down the well inventory, and the backlog has crossed below 500.

Will the former drilling report return?

Readers do not yet have EIA's former Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The section titled "DPR Replacement" returns this month with all four charts.

The replacement restores the four-chart package while the old report remains unavailable. The cited item does not specify the data shown in each chart, so no additional metric can be assigned to them here.

The cited item gives no date for restoration of the former DPR. For now, the separately titled replacement remains the outlet's response to the missing drilling report.

That distinction matters for readers following the inventory series. The return of four charts does not mean that EIA has relaunched the former report under another name.

Takeaway: The old DPR remains missing, while a four-chart replacement returns.

What should be watched next?

Three numbers frame the next watch list:

• The $2.87 per MMBtu Henry Hub average for November through March.
• The $2.88 2027 forecast and its $0.28 downward revision.
• The 500-well threshold for the Appalachian DUC inventory.

A subsequent STEO will show whether the $2.87 near-term average and $2.88 2027 forecast move again. Later updates will show whether the Appalachian DUC count remains below 500.

The market analysis identifies warm weather, reduced heating demand and more gas in storage as the immediate price drivers. The cited item sets no threshold for another forecast revision. It also provides no restoration date for the former DPR.

The final watch items are the next EIA price forecast and whether the Appalachian well backlog remains below 500 wells.