U.S. marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, topping the record 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

First-half 2026 output averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, up 4% (4.6 Bcf/d) from the same period last year. The EIA attributes most of the growth to two basins: the Permian, spanning Texas and New Mexico, and the Haynesville, straddling Louisiana and Texas. The United States has ranked as the world's largest natural gas producer every year from 2009 through 2024, the latest year with global production data.

How much is the Permian adding?

The EIA forecasts Permian gas production at 29.2 Bcf/d for 2026, a 6% increase over 2025. Permian gas output is largely associated gas produced alongside crude oil, so drilling activity there tracks oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $84/bbl through July 2026, up from $65/bbl in 2025. That sits well above Permian breakevens. Oil industry executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy survey reported 2026 breakevens of $69/bbl in the Midland Basin and $63/bbl in the Delaware Basin. At those margins, oil-directed drilling — and the associated gas that comes with it — keeps expanding.

A second driver is structural. The gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) in the Permian keeps rising as reservoir pressure declines with production. Natural gas flows more readily than oil at lower pressures, so each barrel brings progressively more gas to the surface.

What about the Haynesville?

The Haynesville tells a different story. Unlike Permian operators chasing oil, Haynesville operators drill for gas, which ties the play to Henry Hub prices.

First-half 2026 Haynesville production rose 1.1 Bcf/d (7%) year-on-year, and the EIA forecasts a full-year gain of 9% (1.3 Bcf/d) for 2026. The formation runs 10,500–13,500 feet deep, among the deepest in the U.S. Lower 48, and deeper wells carry higher development costs.

The agency expects the Henry Hub spot price to fall 2% (8 cents) to average $3.44/MMBtu in 2026. At that price, drilling remains economical despite the cost profile. Proximity to Gulf Coast LNG export terminals and major industrial gas consumers adds a demand pull that keeps rigs working in the play.

What to watch

Two variables govern whether the 122.5 Bcf/d forecast holds. The first is WTI: Permian gas growth depends on oil-directed drilling staying above the $63–69/bbl breakeven band. The second is Henry Hub — a slide below the EIA's $3.44/MMBtu average would test the economics of Haynesville's deeper, costlier wells. The September STEO revision will show whether first-half momentum carries into the second half.