US crude oil production will average 13.8 million b/d in 2026, topping the record 13.7 million b/d set in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The forecast puts the Lower 48's two workhorse provinces — the Permian and the Federal Gulf of America — at the center of the expansion.

First-half 2026 data already support the call. Crude output averaged 13.7 million b/d in 1H26, up 2% (0.3 million b/d) from the same period in 2025. The EIA attributes most of that gain to the Permian, spanning Texas and New Mexico, and to the Federal Gulf of America.

Where is the growth concentrated?

Permian. The EIA forecasts Permian production will average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, a 3% increase over 2025. The agency ties the growth directly to crude prices.

West Texas Intermediate rose from an average of $65/b in 2025 to an average of $84/b through August 2026 — well above the region's average breakeven price, the minimum needed for an operation to cover costs. Executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in March reported average breakevens of:

• $69/b in the Midland Basin
• $63/b in the Delaware Basin

Those are the two largest basins in the Permian. With WTI trading roughly $15/b above the Delaware breakeven and about $15/b above the Midland figure, producers have clear economic cover for oil-directed drilling — and the resulting production build, the EIA said.

Federal Gulf of America. Offshore output rose 0.2 million b/d (10%) in 1H26 versus 1H25. The EIA forecasts full-year 2026 growth of 3% (0.1 million b/d).

The first-half jump stems primarily from four new major projects that came online in the last year. The EIA expects four additional, smaller projects to start up by the end of 2026, adding to this year's growth.

What could disrupt the forecast?

Gulf hurricanes pose the main operational risk to the development timeline of the new offshore projects. The EIA notes, however, that experts predict a milder-than-normal season. Colorado State University's latest forecast calls for below-normal activity in the 2026 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, which runs June through November, citing El Niño conditions.

A quiet season would protect both the four sanctioned startups still pending and the uninterrupted ramp-up of the majors already onstream — the swing factor between the EIA's 3% Gulf growth forecast and a downside case.

What does the price picture mean for drilling?

The EIA treats the WTI move as the driver, not a promise. At $84/b through August 2026 versus $65/b a year earlier, operators hold margin across both Permian sub-basins, and the agency expects that price signal to sustain drilling activity and output gains through the balance of the year. The breakeven figures from the Dallas Fed survey — $69/b Midland, $63/b Delaware — frame the floor: prices at or below those levels would compress the economics the forecast depends on.

The watch items for the rest of 2026: the startup schedule of the four smaller Gulf projects, hurricane season through November, and whether WTI holds above the Midland and Delaware breakevens into the fourth quarter.