OPEC+ Holds December Output at 31.01 Million Bpd

By James Calloway

The eight producers inside the OPEC+ voluntary-adjustment group will pump to a combined 31.01 million bpd in December 2026, after Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed on November 1 to hold required production at September 2026 levels.

The decision came at a virtual meeting where the seven countries reviewed what their post-meeting statement called "global market conditions and outlook." The group has now carried its additional voluntary adjustments — first announced in April and November 2023 — through another month without either deepening or unwinding them.

What does the rollover actually lock in?

The accompanying production schedule sets country-level requirements for December 2026. Saudi Arabia carries the largest volume at 10.478 million bpd. Russia follows at 9.949 million bpd. Iraq sits third at 4.431 million bpd.

The remaining four:

• Kuwait: 2.676 million bpd
• Kazakhstan: 1.628 million bpd
• Algeria: 1.007 million bpd
• Oman: 841,000 bpd

Those figures sum to the 31.01 million bpd ceiling the group reaffirmed. For operators and traders, the takeaway is simple: the group has chosen predictability over surprise, holding the quotas the market already knew.

How firm is the commitment?

In their statement, the countries reiterated their "collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation" — the framework that binds OPEC members and participating non-OPEC producers. They also pledged to keep monitoring market developments through regular consultations.

The mechanics stay unchanged. "The seven OPEC+ countries will continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions," the statement said. The next session is set for November 29, 2026 — the date to watch for any move before January.

The group also reaffirmed its commitment to cooperation among oil-producing nations and to stability in the international market, the standing language that has framed each monthly rollover since the voluntary cuts began.

What does it mean for prices and for Nigeria?

Price implications remain a matter of analysis, not of record. One energy analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the decision could support international crude prices — with knock-on benefits for Nigeria's revenue and foreign exchange earnings.

That reading rests on simple arithmetic. If the seven producers hold supply flat while demand grows into winter, the balance tightens modestly and price support follows. If conformity slips — and Kazakhstan and Iraq have history on that score — the support erodes.

For Nigerian producers and fiscal planners, the reference price that shapes budget assumptions now has one fewer source of downside volatility through year-end, at least on paper.

What comes next

Two dates matter from here. The November 29 meeting will show whether the group extends the rollover into January 2026 or begins signalling a change. And monthly conformity data will show whether the 31.01 million bpd ceiling holds in practice, not just in the schedule.

The group has bought the market another month of stability; whether full conformity delivers it is the question the next data release answers.