OPEC+ Set to Hold December Quotas as SPR Hits 1982 Low

OPEC+ will likely keep production quotas unchanged for December when the group meets Sunday, sources familiar with the plans told Reuters on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman have held targeted output steady since completing in September the phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply cuts first agreed in 2023.

The eight core producers finished unwinding those voluntary curbs two months ago. Analysts read the expected December rollover as a signal Riyadh and Moscow prefer predictability while demand signals stay mixed. The watch item: Sunday's meeting and any guidance on 2026 policy.

What did Iran announce in the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body Tehran established to manage passage requests in the Strait of Hormuz, said Tuesday that all vessels belonging to South Korean shipping company Sinokor would face "legal action" starting November 1. The statement did not specify what measures the action would involve. Roughly a fifth of global oil transits Hormuz, so any enforcement against a specific carrier sets a precedent freight desks will track closely.

Where will Saudi Arabia store crude abroad?

Saudi Arabia plans to store crude in Singapore at the Jurong Rock Caverns in 2027, Reuters reported. The move aims to strengthen supply security amid ongoing hostilities and instability in the Middle East. Storing barrels outside the Gulf gives Riyadh a sales position that avoids Hormuz transit risk entirely. The takeaway: the kingdom is paying for physical optionality three years out.

What is happening on the drilling and earnings side?

Britain is weighing whether to drill its largest untapped oilfield while Brent trades above $100 and more than 70% of its oil already comes from imports, according to the brief. No sanction decision has been announced; the field remains at the policy stage.

Earnings tell a stronger story. Exxon and Chevron-era predecessor figures aside, the brief cites Exxon and Mobil together making slightly more than $29 billion in the third quarter of this year — a figure that could set a record if confirmed in official filings later this quarter.

What do the latest US data points show?

Several US indicators landed this week:

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks fell to 282.6 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982, Department of Energy data showed.
• Gasoline prices since January 20, 2025 have averaged $3.458 per gallon, Energy Information Administration data showed — the first time average pump prices in President Trump's second term have surpassed the four-year average under President Biden.
• Utility companies and their trade associations contributed $12.7 million to seven major partisan political groups focused on state-level races so far this year, an Energy and Policy Institute analysis of IRS filings dating back to 2002 found — the largest such total in any year for the groups known as "527s."

The SPR number is the one traders will watch. Restocking tenders, not the level itself, move crude demand.

How is energy demand from data centers shifting?

Opposition to data center construction is growing from Ohio to Texas, driven by skepticism about local benefits. That pushback contributed to delays or cancellations of $156 billion in proposed data center projects in 2025 alone.

Anthropic's IPO registration details a company moving deeper into the energy supply chain, particularly natural gas. Some planned facilities — called Anthropic Direct in the S-1 filing — will rely on dedicated on-site gas generation.

What else is in play in Washington?

Four Senate Democrats — Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Ron Wyden of Oregon, Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Ron Merkley of Oregon — are pressing Trump officials to restore billions of dollars in clean energy grants before a key vote on the permitting deal, Axios reported. The senators want the administration to direct the Energy Department to reinstate grants terminated in October 2025 with a clear timeline, allow recipients to draw on funds under original terms, and pledge in writing not to cancel grants based on a state's political leanings.

Separately, the Pentagon wants every major US military base to sustain 90 days of operations without outside support if war cuts power and supply chains. Britain is advising families to keep canned food, bottled water and cash for three days of disruption.

The near-term watch items: Sunday's OPEC+ decision, Sinokor enforcement from November 1, and third-quarter earnings prints that could confirm the $29 billion record.