A one-million-bpd crude export pipeline to Canada's west coast will move through a single federal regulatory review that Ottawa intends to complete by September 1, 2027, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Thursday in Fort McMurray, Alberta.

The Pacific Link pipeline, unveiled in July, forms the centerpiece of Carney's push to cut Canada's economic reliance on the United States and blunt the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Formal designation as a project of national interest consolidates what would otherwise be multiple federal approvals into one review track.

Ottawa's figures put the project's economic weight at more than C$20 billion ($14 billion) in annual GDP, 140,000 jobs, and C$100 billion in cumulative government revenue by 2060.

Capacity gap on the coast

Canada currently operates a single east-west crude export conduit: the 890,000-bpd Trans Mountain pipeline to Burnaby, British Columbia. Its expansion was completed in 2024 and the line already runs at full capacity. More than 90% of Canadian crude exports have moved by pipeline to the US for years.

A second west coast outlet would position Canada as a supplier to Asia's leading crude importers, which have sought barrels outside the Middle East following the Iran conflict. Sanctioning the line, however, is one thing; filling it is another. Throughput of one million bpd would require new oil sands expansions of a scale no producer has sanctioned in more than a decade.

Ownership and cost structure

Government-owned Trans Mountain Corp will build the pipeline in coordination with Pembina Pipeline Corp. Alberta pegs capital cost at between C$35.2 billion and C$43.7 billion.

The federal government and the government of Alberta will hold majority ownership. Indigenous communities will be offered an equity stake of at least 10%. Chief Raymond Powder of the Fort McKay First Nation told reporters his community is interested in potentially seeking an ownership position.

Carney said Ottawa will conduct extensive consultations with Indigenous groups on the proposal. The pledge carries weight given Canada's pipeline record: earlier projects drew strong opposition from environmental and Indigenous groups, leading to some cancellations and cost overruns and construction delays on others.

Policy context

Speaking in the heart of the oil sands sector, Carney framed the line within a broader mandate to double non-US exports within ten years and what he called Canada's potential as a global energy superpower.

The review deadline of September 1, 2027, gives the federal government roughly two years to complete an assessment that previous pipeline projects — including Trans Mountain's own expansion — took far longer to clear. Trans Mountain's expansion overran its original budget by several multiples before starting up in 2024.

The watch items: whether Ottawa meets the September 2027 review deadline, the pace of Indigenous equity negotiations, and whether any oil sands producer sanctions the new bitumen capacity the line would need to run full.