A proposed 1-million-b/d oil pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia's southern coast has become the first project designated under Canada's new national-interest fast-tracking regime, the federal and Alberta governments announced Oct. 1 in Fort McMurray.

Listing the West Coast Pacific Link pipeline on Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act shifts Ottawa's posture from whether the line should be built to how it will be built, consolidating approvals and environmental assessment into a single streamlined process. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the change eliminates a risk that stalled Canadian infrastructure for a decade: proponents previously spent years and potentially billions of dollars before learning where the federal government stood.

"For many builders, the risk was not worth it. So, Canada stopped building," Carney said. "Now, the federal government is making its position clear at the beginning of the process, rather than at the end."

Cost, ownership, and the 2027 conditions deadline

The estimated cost of the pipeline runs between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion, including contingency. Ownership is structured at 45% each for the Alberta government and the federally owned Trans Mountain Corporation, with Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corporation holding 10%. Indigenous communities will be offered a minimum 10% equity stake, Carney said.

Dominic LeBlanc, minister of one Canadian economy, must complete the project's conditions document — the binding set of requirements covering environmental protections, oversight, Indigenous ownership, and local hiring — by Sept. 1, 2027. That document clears the way for construction to start, with an in-service target of 2032-33. The Major Projects Office and the Canada Energy Regulator will run the stakeholder consultations that feed into it.

The GDP and pricing case

A senior government official, briefing reporters ahead of the announcement, said the pipeline is expected to add up to $30 billion annually to Canada's GDP — $20 billion from the pipeline itself. Diversifying exports away from the U.S. market would let Canada capture a higher price for barrels currently shipped south, generating what officials framed as an additional $10 billion a year in revenues. Those figures are government projections, not independent analysis. Ottawa also said the project would create up to 140,000 jobs once approved.

For Canadian producers moving Alberta bitumen, the line would roughly double the export capacity added by the Trans Mountain expansion, which entered service in 2024 after a approval saga that private investors have not forgotten.

Private capital is watching, not yet committed

The line starts life 90% government-owned, but a senior official speaking on background said investors are positioned to participate. They are waiting to see whether Canada can actually deliver Pacific Link on the 2032-33 timeline, given the delays and cost escalation that plagued Trans Mountain.

Carney argued two factors will draw private money: the collaborative structure bringing Alberta, B.C., and Indigenous communities into the ownership fold, and a federal effective tax rate on new investment that his government has cut to less than a third of the G7 average.

"This is the best country in the world, major economy in the world, to invest," Carney said. "And I'm sure those companies and companies across the country will take that into account."

No proponent cost estimate for the terminal and marine-loading infrastructure on the B.C. coast has been disclosed, and no final investment decision has been taken. The watch items: LeBlanc's conditions document by Sept. 1, 2027, the pace of Indigenous equity participation, and whether private investors move from the sidelines before construction begins.