A 1 million bpd crude pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast has entered Ottawa's fast-track lane, and the tolls question is already shadowing the project. Prime Minister Mark Carney has listed the West Coast Oil Pipeline, now rebranded as Pacific Link, as a project of national interest, routing it through the Major Projects Office under the newly tabled Building Canada Strong Act (Bill C-39), which accelerates approvals and environmental assessments for designated projects.

The numbers framing the debate are large. Project costs are projected to surpass $40 billion. Pembina Institute estimates that tolls on Pacific Link would run at least 1.1 to 1.8 times current Trans Mountain Expansion tolls — a spread that could determine whether Alberta producers commit volumes.

"That suggests that this new pipeline would be the most expensive one to ship oil through," Janetta McKenzie, director of the oil and gas program at the Pembina Institute, said in an interview with Canada's National Observer.

McKenzie and colleague Masson both flagged the risk that tolls required to earn back the $40-billion-plus investment could render the line uncompetitive with alternative egress options, which may already be holding producers back from committing capacity.

Clean growth test contested

The Carney government's own legislation requires national-interest projects to contribute to Canada's clean growth objectives. McKenzie argues Pacific Link fails that test.

"To be frank, this pipeline is not aligned with clean growth and meeting Canada's climate objectives. We're talking about 20, 25 megatonnes of extra emissions per year," she said.

The pipeline is billed as tied to the Pathways carbon capture project, but Pathways' capture target has been scaled back from an original 22 megatonnes per year to 16 Mt/y — narrowing the offset the association can claim against the line's upstream emissions.

Coastal and seismic risks cited

Environmental Defence called the decision "deeply reckless and frustrating."

"There's devastating environmental damage at every phase of this infrastructure project," Emilia Belliveau, energy transition program manager at Environmental Defence, told Canada's National Observer. She cited toxic tailings ponds and ecosystem damage along the West Coast, particularly habitat of the endangered Southern Resident killer whale, a population that has dwindled to 73 individuals. Tanker traffic associated with the line could add oil spill risk and underwater noise pressure.

Georgia Lloyd-Smith, staff lawyer at West Coast Environmental Law, raised an additional engineering concern: soil at Delta, where the proposed tanker terminal would sit, is prone to liquefaction in an earthquake — with crude storage planned on site. "So, there's a risk of an oil spill from the land as well," she said.

On Tuesday, the federal government announced $1.2 billion in ocean protection funding ahead of the pipeline decision. Several environmental groups said the amount falls short.

Political split

Alberta broadly welcomed the designation. Federal opposition parties did not.

"Greens are outraged that the Cabinet has made a decision without even a cursory review of the evidence, committing Canadians to wasting another $40-billion-plus of public dollars on an uneconomic, climate-killing pipeline," Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said by email. "I defy the Carney Cabinet to find a single climate scientist who could defend their claim that the additional GHG emissions are not 'material.'"

NDP Leader Avi Lewis called the pipeline "an offence to Canadian science, public health, collective safety, and common sense" and said Indigenous nations have expressed opposition.

Indigenous ownership and consultation

The pipeline, jointly owned by Canada and Alberta, will cross First Nations lands. Indigenous communities will be offered a minimum 10 per cent ownership interest. According to a statement from the Prime Minister's Office, 130 Indigenous communities in Alberta and BC were consulted before the designation.

At least one community disputes the substance of that process. Coldwater Indian Band says the line amounts to a third Trans Mountain crossing through the Coldwater Valley.

"The Crown's duty to consult and accommodate Coldwater remains unfilled and Canada and Trans Mountain are not legally or respectfully operating in our reserve," Vice-Chief Michael Smithers said in an emailed statement. He said the government allowed a three-month consultation window, but wildfire-forced evacuations consumed two of those months, and requests to extend the period were ignored.

"I don't know how they can commit to rigorous consultation and building in partnership with Indigenous communities when they haven't dealt with their existing obligations yet and don't seem to be listening to our concerns," Smithers said.

Further consultations with Indigenous groups are expected to continue through the coming year. The watch items: whether the Bill C-39 review process survives legal challenge, whether producer commitments materialize at tolls 1.1–1.8 times TMX levels, and whether the $1.2 billion ocean protection package satisfies conditions attached to the tanker terminal at Delta.