Sub-Saharan LNG Exports to Jump 175% by 2034 as Buyers Diversify

Sub-Saharan Africa's LNG exports will grow nearly 175% to 98 billion cubic meters by 2034, up from 35.7 bcm in 2024, according to Fitch, as buyers burned by Strait of Hormuz supply risk redirect capital toward African gas that moves entirely outside Middle Eastern chokepoints.

The African Energy Chamber projects roughly $40 billion a year in upstream investment through 2030, lifting the continent's hydrocarbon output to 12.5 MMboe/d. Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Ivory Coast will absorb the largest shares of that capital, while new projects in Uganda, Kenya and Namibia widen the production base.

For practitioners, the shift matters on two tracks: sanctioned capacity is now building in Mozambique, Nigeria and the Senegal-Mauritania offshore, while a second tier of projects — Rovuma LNG, Venus, Mopane, Tanzania's Lindi plant — sits at appraisal or pre-FID stage with dates still to be locked.

What is actually under construction in Mozambique?

The Rovuma Basin off Cabo Delgado anchors three world-scale projects. TotalEnergies' $20 billion Mozambique LNG, a 13.1 MTPA facility, resumed construction in January after a four-and-a-half-year force majeure was lifted; the project stands about 45% complete.

Eni has launched an offshore drilling campaign for the $7.2 billion Coral North FLNG, building on Coral South's operating record. Commercial operations are targeted for 2028 and would raise Mozambique's floating LNG capacity to 7 MTPA.

ExxonMobil has doubled its working interest in the $30 billion Rovuma LNG project to 50% through an asset swap with Eni, and remains operator of the onshore liquefaction development. The consortium targets FID in late 2026.

How is Nigeria scaling feedgas supply?

Nigeria's Decade of Gas framework underpins the expansion, with revised fiscal terms aimed at Non-Associated Gas developments in onshore and shallow offshore assets to reverse stagnant upstream investment.

• Nigeria LNG's Train 7 will lift capacity to 30 MTPA from 2027.
• NNPC Ltd and upstream partners signed 20-year Gas Supply Agreements, extendable, covering 1.29 bscf/d of feedgas to NLNG.

Domestic demand gives the infrastructure build a second leg: the Energy Institute's Statistical Review, cited by The National, puts natural gas at only 17% of primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa against a global average of 25%, and African gas demand is projected to grow 60% by 2050.

Which frontier basins are converting to production?

The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project, shared by Senegal and Mauritania, entered commercial operations after shipping its first LNG cargo in April 2025. Phase one delivers 2.5 mtpa; phase two targets 5 mtpa. Senegal is now marketing 109 exploration blocks to international investors.

In Namibia's Orange Basin, TotalEnergies has taken operatorship of the Mopane discovery from Galp Energia in an asset swap, consolidating a position alongside Venus. The Venus development in PEL 56 is designed around an FPSO, with a possible 2026 FID contingent on fiscal negotiations with the government. Mopane appraisal begins with a three-well campaign as early as the second half of 2026, targeting FID in 2028.

Tanzania has largely completed negotiations on commercial structure, taxation and revenue sharing for its $42 billion Lindi LNG project, backed by Equinor, Shell and ExxonMobil. A Host Government Agreement and parliamentary approval remain outstanding. Separately, a discovery at Mnazi Bay — Tanzania's first in a decade — holds an estimated 223 billion cubic feet, with more than 80% of the field's gas already feeding TANESCO power plants.

What should the market watch next?

The milestones that will confirm or test the 98 bcm trajectory: Rovuma LNG's FID in late 2026, Venus's fiscal terms with Namibia, Tanzania's Host Government Agreement, and Train 7's 2027 startup.