U.S. net natural gas exports will climb to 20.5 Bcf/d by 2027 — a roughly 30% jump from 2025 — as five new LNG export projects enter service and ramp production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its April Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Net exports — exports minus imports — rise 18% to 18.7 Bcf/d in 2026 before adding another 10% the following year, according to the STEO. The forecast assumes pipeline exports to Mexico continue to expand and that U.S. LNG terminals hold the elevated utilization rates they have run since the February–March attacks on Qatari infrastructure at Ras Laffan and through the Strait of Hormuz.

What does the capacity ramp look like?

U.S. LNG exports will average 17.0 Bcf/d in 2026, up 1.9 Bcf/d year-on-year, and add another 1.5 Bcf/d in 2027. Current U.S. peak liquefaction capacity sits at 18.3 Bcf/d.

The 2026 additions:

• Corpus Christi Stage 3, trains 5–7: 0.6 Bcf/d combined
• Golden Pass LNG, first two trains: 1.4 Bcf/d

The 2027 additions:

• Port Arthur LNG Phase 1: 1.6 Bcf/d
• Rio Grande LNG, trains 1 and 2: 1.4 Bcf/d
• Golden Pass LNG, final train: 0.7 Bcf/d

Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG received separate Department of Energy authorizations in March and April 2026 to raise permitted exports by 0.5 Bcf/d and 0.1 Bcf/d, respectively.

Pipeline gas exports — which feed Mexican power demand and two new LNG terminals south of the border, Energía Costa Azul and Fast LNG Altamira FLNG2 (0.6 Bcf/d combined, online in 2026 and 2027) — rise 4% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 9.8 Bcf/d in 2026 and add another 0.2 Bcf/d in 2027 to reach 10.0 Bcf/d.

How is the trade rerouting?

Strait of Hormuz disruptions have pulled more than 10 Bcf/d — roughly 20% of global LNG volumes — off the market and are drawing cargoes toward Atlantic-basin suppliers. QatarEnergy estimates repairs on two liquefaction trains damaged at Ras Laffan in a March 18 attack could take up to five years. The incident disabled 17% of Qatar's export capacity.

The reroute shows in 2025 flows. LNG exports to Europe hit a record 10.3 Bcf/d, up from 6.3 Bcf/d in 2024 and accounting for 68% of U.S. LNG volumes, according to the EIA's Natural Gas Monthly. Italy took 0.5 Bcf/d more and Poland 0.3 Bcf/d more.

Asian volumes slipped from 4.0 Bcf/d in 2024 to 2.5 Bcf/d in 2025 — 16% of the total. China-bound U.S. LNG fell to zero from 0.6 Bcf/d as traders resold cargoes amid trade tensions, while exports to Egypt quadrupled to 1.2 Bcf/d from 0.3 Bcf/d.

What shifts on the supply side?

Canadian pipeline imports to the U.S. averaged 8.6 Bcf/d in 2025, up 0.1 Bcf/d. The EIA expects that figure to slip to 8.0 Bcf/d by 2027 as two west-coast Canadian LNG projects with 2.1 Bcf/d of combined capacity ramp up. Northeast U.S. demand is increasingly served by Appalachia production growth rather than Canadian molecules.

LNG imports, which serve mostly New England during winter peaks, held under 0.1 Bcf/d in 2025 and will continue to play a marginal balancing role in 2026–27, the agency said.

What's the watch item?

First cargoes from Golden Pass trains 1 and 2, expected before year-end 2026, and confirmation that Corpus Christi Stage 3 trains 5–7 commission on schedule. Either slip would push the 17.0 Bcf/d 2026 LNG average to the low side and tighten Atlantic-basin balances into the winter heating season.