US liquefaction plants are running at 116% of nameplate capacity as operators push out every available cargo to backfill volumes lost from the Strait of Hormuz, Center for LNG Executive Director Charlie Riedl told a Washington Foreign Press Center briefing.

Nine export facilities currently ship roughly 17-18 Bcf/d of gas equivalent, about 15% of total US demand of around 100 Bcf/d. Domestic production of 110-120 Bcf/d continues to outpace demand, keeping Henry Hub at $3.25/MMBtu — a historically low level after a decade of exports, Riedl said.

How much new capacity is coming?

Ten projects or expansions are under construction, adding 13.5 Bcf/d before the end of the decade. That puts US LNG export capacity at roughly 30 Bcf/d by 2030. A further 12 Bcf/d of projects sit in permitting or await commercial agreements before sanction. By 2050, Riedl said, the US market could reach 40-45 Bcf/d — nearly triple today's levels.

LNG facilities take five to seven years and billions of dollars to build, giving the market a multi-year demand signal that, unlike weather-driven swings, pulls gas 365 days a year.

Riedl noted two US projects reached final investment decision in the last month and a half, and reported a record number of FIDs over the past year and a half, driven largely by buyers in India and emerging Asian markets.

What is happening in Europe?

About 65% of US LNG exports currently land in Europe, down from nearly 80% in 2023 as other supply sources arrived. The US is now Europe's second-largest gas supplier behind Norway and its largest LNG supplier, covering roughly half of European LNG imports.

European gas storage sits at 42% of capacity — an 11-point drop from roughly 53% at the same point last year and the lowest level since 2018. Riedl said analysts consider 70% full at the end of injection season a win against the usual 90% target, with implications for TTF prices, the benchmark against which US spot cargoes sell.

Europe has also increased imports of Russian LNG by about 18% year over year, roughly 8.5 million tonnes year to date, even as Russian pipeline gas imports have fallen to nearly zero.

Why does the EU methane regulation matter?

The EU methane regulation takes effect January 1, 2027 — the same date Europe plans to stop importing Russian LNG. Riedl said a Wood Mackenzie study found gas equivalent to about 43% of the EU's total supply would be non-compliant with the regulation as written.

"As it's currently written today, the US and our US suppliers are not going to be able to comply with the regulation as written," Riedl said, adding the rule has had a chilling effect on new long-term contracts. US terminals rely on 15- to 20-year agreements to underpin project financing.

He said the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global LNG flows — and the outage at Qatar's Ras Laffan could force Brussels to revise or pause the regulation to prioritize security of supply.

Can Eastern Europe count on US cargoes?

Poland takes roughly 5% of total US LNG export capacity and Lithuania about 2%, numbers Riedl said are trending upward. But he was candid about near-term limits: "The US really doesn't have more gas to provide right now." Facilities already run above nameplate, and the US "will not be able to backfill the loss of production that is coming out of the Persian Gulf."

For landlocked Hungary, Riedl said access to US LNG requires new pipeline infrastructure — the Vertical Corridor concept of north-south links across legacy east-west systems — backed by large-scale industry and government investment over years.

On Romania, where Neptun Deep offshore production is set to double national output by 2027, Riedl sees no commercial conflict: "There is more than enough demand to satisfy both US LNG supply as well as increased Romanian production," citing projected demand growth from data centers and a hoped-for return of European manufacturing.

On fears of a post-2030 LNG glut, Riedl pointed to durable demand from India and Asia, plus continued European reliance on gas acknowledged by EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. All investment risk sits with private lenders, he noted, not the US government.

The watch items: European storage levels through injection season, TTF pricing response, Hormuz and Ras Laffan outage durations, and whether Brussels revises the methane regulation before its January 1, 2027 compliance date.