European Gas Hits $103/MWh, Highest Since December 2022

European benchmark gas climbed past $103 per megawatt-hour on Friday — the highest level since December 2022 — as Houthi attacks in the Middle East continue to choke off Qatari LNG just as the heating season begins.

The front-month contract at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe's gas trading benchmark, jumped 3% at 7 a.m. Amsterdam time, touching $103.40 (92.30 euros) per MWh. That's equivalent to more than $30 per million British thermal units. Brent crude, moving on the same fears, hit a five-month high of $114 per barrel on concerns that Houthi strikes could reach Saudi Arabian energy facilities.

For context: December 2022 was the first winter Europe faced without most Russian pipeline gas. Prices back then were the symptom of a supply shock. What's different now is the shape of the problem — LNG, not pipelines, and the Persian Gulf rather than Russia.

What is driving the rally?

Two forces are squeezing the European market at once.

The first is the Middle East escalation. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure have pushed oil higher, and the risk premium is bleeding into gas. Traders now doubt Qatari LNG — a pillar of Europe's winter supply — will show up in meaningful volumes while the disruption lasts.

The second is storage. EU storage sites stood at just 74.62% full as of October 22, per Gas Infrastructure Europe data. The five-year average for this point in the season, days before heating demand ramps up, is roughly 86%. That's a gap of more than 10 percentage points heading into winter.

"European gas prices also remain extremely sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, with LNG flows increasingly likely to be largely absent from the market for at least much of the Northern Hemisphere winter," ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Friday.

That's not a forecast of a short squeeze — it's a strategist's warning that the marginal molecule may simply not arrive.

How firm is the move?

Friday's pop wasn't a one-off tick. TTF rallied 3% on Thursday and settled above 90 euros per MWh, its highest close since December 2022. By Friday morning it had pushed through 92 euros.

The storage picture compounds the squeeze. "EU gas storage also appears to have peaked at just under 75% full," ING's strategists said. If injections are done for the season, Europe enters winter with a thinner cushion than any recent year — and with some EU countries already drawing gas from storage as temperatures drop, the buffer is being eaten before December arrives.

Each storage draw in October is a withdrawal that won't be available in February. That's the arithmetic traders are pricing.

What happens next?

The watch items are straightforward. First, Qatari LNG flows: any resumption would relieve pressure quickly; continued absence keeps the floor under TTF. Second, Houthi activity around Saudi energy infrastructure — the $114 Brent print shows oil markets are already pricing escalation risk. Third, the weather: a cold start to the heating season against a 74.62% storage fill would accelerate draws and test the market's assumption that Europe can muddle through.

Price commentary here is analysis to attribute, not fact. ING's view is that Persian Gulf LNG is likely to be largely absent for much of the winter. If that holds, the 92-euro level may not be the ceiling.

The number to watch is the storage fill on the next weekly Gas Infrastructure Europe print — and whether it confirms the peak is in.