Hormuz Flows Rebound to 11.7 Million Bpd, Yet Tanker Strikes Keep Prices Bid

By Priya Raman

Strait of Hormuz crude flows averaged 11.7 million bpd in October, up from 9.8 million bpd in September — and oil prices still went up. That mismatch is the whole story.

What are the numbers actually saying?

Kpler data show total Middle East oil exports in October running above levels from before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Flows through Hormuz sit close to the pre-war average of 14.5 million bpd recorded that month, Reuters' Ron Bousso reported.

Sounds like recovery. It isn't. Those barrels are moving at considerable cost and risk. Iran has intensified attacks on tankers, and the export figures mask a fragile logistics picture behind them.

How bad is the tanker strike count?

Bad, and probably understated. Data from UK Maritime Trade Operations (the Royal Navy-run incident reporting hub) and statements from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps show at least 25 ships hit in Hormuz in the first 20 days of October. Most were tankers.

Outlets tracking the incidents note many crews never report attacks, for various reasons. The true count could run to 40-50 vessels. Take both figures as floors, not ceilings.

Kpler itself flagged the disruption in early October. "Crude crossing the strait fell 27% from a wartime high the week before, to at least 10.1 million barrels a day," two Kpler analysts reported. The firm counted just seven commodity carriers transiting the strait on October 6 — the lowest figure since late July.

Why does the data conflict?

Because the same tracker now shows opposite trends. Reuters reported at least 18 tanker attacks in the past two weeks, citing Kpler. The same firm this week put Persian Gulf outflows at 8.5 million bpd, down from "more than 20 million barrels daily" two weeks prior.

That is a sharp, deep drop. It sits awkwardly beside the October export recovery cited at the top of this piece. Conflicting numbers from the same source don't build confidence in supply security, and they shouldn't build it in yours either.

What about freight and the shadow fleet?

Much of the crude leaving the Gulf now moves via ship-to-ship transfers (STS, cargo swapped between vessels at anchor rather than at berth), off the coast of Oman among other places. That practice has pushed freight rates to record highs and kept them there.

The shortage of carriers has grown serious enough that President Trump was said to be weighing sanctions relief on some tankers now hauling Russian oil. Don't expect that to fix much.

"Sanctions relief does not equal immediately usable mainstream tanker capacity," Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research at S&P Global Energy, told Bloomberg. "The number of vessels that could realistically migrate back into mainstream trading would likely be materially smaller than the overall sanctioned fleet."

In short: the shadow fleet is busy carrying sanctioned barrels. Freeing it on paper doesn't free it at sea.

Where do prices go from here?

Nowhere fast, probably. A U.S.-Iran peace deal looks as remote as it did three months ago. Futures are firm; physical crude is actually softer, Bloomberg reported, on the Hormuz rebound and a slight, welcome dip in tanker rates.

"There's still plenty of headline risk at play. Oil stocks are quite low and it's difficult to see them rebuilding given current dynamics," a senior commodity analyst at Marex told Bloomberg. Ryan Fitzmaurice added that a hoped-for El Niño could trim winter heating demand and ease prices.

Betting on the weather is a weak hedge. Expect prices to stay elevated through year-end.

The takeaway is plain. Workarounds exist even for a closed Hormuz — STS transfers, rerouting, record freight — but they cost money and they don't replace business as usual. The market is paying that cost, and the market is right.

Watch item: weekly Kpler flow estimates out of Hormuz, and whether the tanker-attack count — 18 in two weeks and climbing — forces a fresh risk premium into freight rates.