Oil Holds Near $115 as Hormuz Attacks Test Market Before Midterms

By Elena Vasquez

Brent held near $115 per barrel on October 27, 2026, while the oil market tracked more than 30 attacks around Hormuz and rising hostility concerns before the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms. The coming days combine an OPEC+ meeting, Iran mediation efforts and a Saudi-Houthi conflict gaining momentum.

What has changed around Hormuz?

October has brought the most acute maritime escalation since the U.S.-Iran war began eight months ago: more than 30 incidents in Hormuz and nearby waters, up from 14 in September. The latest target was a crude tanker in Iraq's exclusive economic zone, indicating Iran is hitting vessels beyond those suspected of covertly transiting the strait.

VLCCs account for 28% of drone and missile attacks in the Persian Gulf; 32 affected ships equal almost 4% of the global VLCC fleet. A Saudi Arabia-China voyage still costs about $33/bbl, while regional demurrage has climbed since mid-August to $1 million/day.

UKMTO said reporting strikes has become "increasingly more difficult" because ships prefer to travel unnoticed and charterers resist raising freight rates further.

The physical risk is rising faster than visibility into it.

Where do politics and policy meet the market?

The market is watching the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, with expectations of hostilities rising in November. Qatar and Pakistan are trying to mediate between the Trump administration and Tehran, temporarily limiting Brent upside. Separately, Saudi-Houthi hostilities appear to be gaining momentum.

Yemen's Houthis claimed a "ballistic missile strike" hit Saudi Arabia's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery, causing a fire and disrupting operations at the kingdom's largest plant. An earlier March attack shut it for three months.

OPEC+ is expected to hold December targets steady at Sunday's meeting, while seven core members focus on 2027 quotas after completing the rollback of 1.65 million b/d voluntary cuts disrupted by the Hormuz crisis. This remains an expectation, not a decision.

The U.S. is considering extending its truce with China on port charges for Chinese-linked ships by two months to Jan. 9, preserving a suspension of retaliatory fees that previously cost millions of dollars per port call and raised freight costs.

Qatar and Pakistan's mediation efforts have so far capped Brent's upside, but no formal supply or shipping relief is locked in.

Which corporate moves changed the outlook?

• EQT-Range Resources: EQT has agreed to buy Range Resources in a $13 billion all-stock deal, creating the largest U.S. gas company. The combined Appalachian-focused company would have net output above 9 bcf/d.
• Ovintiv-Logan Energy: Ovintiv will acquire Canada's Logan Energy for $0.9 billion in cash, adding about 20,000 boe/d and 266,000 net acres across the Montney shale play.
• BP-Loran: BP has started phase two exploration of Venezuela's offshore Loran gas field, using survey vessel Fugro Brasilis for final seabed studies.
• ExxonMobil-Guyana: ExxonMobil reported a commercial discovery at Rockhead-1 offshore Guyana, its first drilling success since the 2024 Hatchetfish find. The resource estimate is 500-600 million barrels.
• ENI-Cronos: ENI has launched construction of the 3 TCf Cronos project offshore Cyprus, targeting first gas in the first half of 2028 and exports through Egypt's Damietta LNG terminal.

The corporate agenda spans gas consolidation, exploration, a commercial discovery and a project in construction, not one uniform cycle.

How are downstream and trade policies changing?

• Galp-Moeve: The companies abandoned a potential downstream merger after bumper 2026 profits made terms harder to agree. Their combination would have joined 700,000 b/d of refining capacity and 3,500 service stations.
• EU-China trade: The European Union may introduce quotas or tariffs on Chinese chemicals, furniture and machinery from early 2027, seeking to replicate its hybrid-vehicle import caps and narrow a €360 billion trade deficit.
• Singapore-Indonesia gas: Singapore's state gas buyer GasCo launched its first LNG term supply tender after neighboring Indonesia announced an export cut of 15% to 31 MMcf/d. Singapore also plans five new gas-powered plants.
• Greater Sunrise: Australian Woodside agreed to sell its stakes in the Greater Sunrise fields offshore East Timor for $200 million, leaving state oil firm Timor Gap as the sole stakeholder in the untapped 5.3 TCf field.

Refining consolidation is pausing while Asian gas procurement and trade structures shift.

What do new infrastructure bets require?

• Alberta rail exports: Alberta urged Carney's government to repeal Canada's 2019 West Coast tanker ban on vessels carrying more than 12,500 tonnes from British Columbia ports, backing a proposed 250,000 b/d crude-by-rail route.
• Indonesian imports: Indonesia plans to replace tender-based crude and refined-product programs with government-to-government and government-to-business deals, courting India and China for long-term supply.
• Dangote refining: Nigeria's Dangote is considering a third 700,000 b/d refinery in Africa, alongside Lekki and the upcoming Lamu refinery in Kenya, while investing in West African product pipelines.
• Malaysian coal: Malaysia's government proposed extending coal-fired plant lives despite its pledge to retire coal by 2044. Coal supplies 56% of generation, while JKM jumped to $33/MMBtu this week.
• Iron ore: Dalian iron ore futures fell to ¥662/tonne, the lowest since September 2024. Weak Chinese demand and wafer-thin margins were expected to curb fourth-quarter steel consumption, with the price below a $100/tonne threshold.
• Methane rules: The Trump administration plans to relax oil-and-gas methane rules, including exemptions for wells producing up to 15 boe/d. Projections put incremental output at 210 million barrels from older and depleted wells.
• Bahri fleet: Saudi national shipping company Bahri ordered three VLCCs from domestic builder International Maritime Industries for $451 million. Deliveries are scheduled for 2029-30, marking the first attempt at exclusively Saudi shipbuilding.
• UK tiebacks: The Burnham government is considering fast-tracking a small number of oil and gas tiebacks before pending legislation creates Transitional Energy Certificates that extend existing fields but preserve the exploration ban.

These projects lean on rail, government-backed supply, gas and late-life production rather than immediate greenfield certainty.

The watch starts with OPEC+'s Sunday decision on December quotas, then any signs of stable Hormuz traffic or Ras Tanura operations, with Gulf freight and demurrage providing the next margin signal.